2016 update - plans, angles, trading, subs, DFS etc

I'm back and enjoyed the fishing - thanks for asking! Happy new year to all readers and a quick update about plans in the near future. First of all I'm finalising a few things so it will probably be the end of Jan before things settle into a pattern - mailing lists, previews etc.....

I'll be posting plays to the spreadsheet for now like the 2nd half of 2015. Daily Fantasy sports will hopefully be added to the portfolio soon (supposedly it's still a "work in progress") but tbh the London Office seems to be taking the Michael

I mentioned I've now finished years of back testing trading strategies and I've learned so much over the last 5 years that an Ebook is in the pipeline, although being honest I'm very lazy when it comes to putting it all together. In that time I've also gradually improved my methods of rating and ranking fields and I feel my fixed odds pricing is getting more and more efficient.

Long odds top 10s were the big focus in the 1st half of last year but as some of you know the variance and last day (last bloody hole!) upsets quite annoyed me at one time so I returned to my main strengths although still targeted the top 10 market with some guys in the 60-125 bracket rather than EW. I still think EW is a dangerous game in a lot of tournaments these days with our value reduced and the top tiers becoming so competitive.

Top 10 and even top 20 markets are getting very big in the industry. A few years ago only a small amount of firms even bothered with the top 20 market but these place markets are the area that should become very competitive in golf betting. It's a pity the liquidity on Betfair in these markets is still so poor though as trading them would be great. I find there is some huge value every week offered (by certain firms in particular). I don't feel top 10/20 prices should be directly derived from the outright either - this algorithm can be exploited big time IMO.

I must mention bookies, restrictions and limits. I see it all the time on Twitter - people moaning (disguised chest beating), but I seem to have less problems than these guys supposedly have so take with a pinch of salt - most of you will be able to get on at decent prices.

Moving back to the Betfair Trading and the earlier rounds is the place where I think I personally have my biggest edge now so I may at some stage open a trading diary but I'm never sure how many people actually trade their bets so if you could send me some feedback on this on my Twitter @Nicspicks if interested that would be a help.

I'm aware of the need for blogs and articles looking at different angles. I mentioned years of trying different strategies and I finally have a big enough sample of tournaments to know what works and what doesn't. I can be honest and tell you most of them either didn't work longterm or the annual ROI% isn't worth the effort. Strangely enough it's actually good that it's turned out to be a process of elimination so now I can really focus on the areas I think are exploitative. Finding that optimal exit point is maybe akin to looking for the gold at the end of a rainbow so I've settled for sure +EV strategies.

Anyway enough with my waffle and onto this week's events. There's obviously a lot of guesswork involved after the extended break so I won't be staking too much of the hard earned but there are a few big prices that catch my eye. So I'm just going to jot down some of my thoughts and flag up a few bets here on the blog...... will have the post up by Tuesday afternoon.

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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