WGC Cadillac Matchplay Betfair Trading Update

Quick update on the new trading strategy I was testing. It was built on a low risk concept and that's proved to be the case. We were looking good after day 1 matches with 6/8 winners from the group faves (and Gmac) I backed. As mentioned in the antepost preview, the low risk element was centered around the fact it was likely most would win at least 1 game and so we would be close to freerolling on faves to win both their first two games. This turned out to be the case with only McDowell (who was the only player from the 8 who wasn't actually the market favourite) losing twice.

Updated book


Unfortunately day 2 went poorly. Kuch managed to win and get himself back into things but 4 from the 6 first day one winners lost. I was hoping for a 66% win rate there rather than the other way around which would have secured the profit I had in mind. The overall record then was a less than hoped for 2-5-1 - two guys scoring 2pts, 5 guys winning 1 from 2 and just the 1 player losing both. Another big negative was both tournament faves Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth both winning two matches which has a drastic affect on the prices of the others. If 1 or both of these were in a precarious position, the book would always look a lot sweeter. Despite things going the wrong way I recovered around 75% of my liability after equalising so - against what I thought yesterday mid round - the strategy might actually be a goer in the future.

Elsewhere, Senden (from Twitter) proved good value as he has already advanced at a price of 13/2 to win his group and Leishman is looking good although he really needs to win all three the way the group has gone unfortunately. I thought McDowell would go a lot better and I lost a bit on Snedeker who I took a shot on given his big odds due to the draw.

In the United Leasing Championship, 3 from 4 are par or better which is in decent position. Wheatcroft was a non runner.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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