WGC Cadillac Matchplay Betfair Trading Update

Quick update on the new trading strategy I was testing. It was built on a low risk concept and that's proved to be the case. We were looking good after day 1 matches with 6/8 winners from the group faves (and Gmac) I backed. As mentioned in the antepost preview, the low risk element was centered around the fact it was likely most would win at least 1 game and so we would be close to freerolling on faves to win both their first two games. This turned out to be the case with only McDowell (who was the only player from the 8 who wasn't actually the market favourite) losing twice.

Updated book


Unfortunately day 2 went poorly. Kuch managed to win and get himself back into things but 4 from the 6 first day one winners lost. I was hoping for a 66% win rate there rather than the other way around which would have secured the profit I had in mind. The overall record then was a less than hoped for 2-5-1 - two guys scoring 2pts, 5 guys winning 1 from 2 and just the 1 player losing both. Another big negative was both tournament faves Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth both winning two matches which has a drastic affect on the prices of the others. If 1 or both of these were in a precarious position, the book would always look a lot sweeter. Despite things going the wrong way I recovered around 75% of my liability after equalising so - against what I thought yesterday mid round - the strategy might actually be a goer in the future.

Elsewhere, Senden (from Twitter) proved good value as he has already advanced at a price of 13/2 to win his group and Leishman is looking good although he really needs to win all three the way the group has gone unfortunately. I thought McDowell would go a lot better and I lost a bit on Snedeker who I took a shot on given his big odds due to the draw.

In the United Leasing Championship, 3 from 4 are par or better which is in decent position. Wheatcroft was a non runner.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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