WGC Matchplay, WebDotCom and thoughts this week

I never strongly recommend any bets in matchplay format but my top 5 vs the field ratings can be found on the 888sport blog, while some decent value (IMO) shouts and full preview of the WGC Cadillac Matchplay Championships event can be found as usual over on my Unibet golf column. I do have an outside interest at very long odds on Marc Leishman. He's also a good value 2/1 top price to beat Rose in the first match or 5s to win his group.

What I will be doing is trading the new round robin group format on Betfair. The idea is to back favourites from different groups that have the potential to steam (come in strongly) if they win their first two matches, with their odds likely to stay close to their SP if they win just 1 from their two opening matches. The plan then is to exit on Thursday night after all players have played two matches, whatever the position in the book. I've gone for the guys below (plus Gmac and Hideki) - the rest have a E1,000 liability next to them at this stage.

Please note that this is a new format this year for the WGC Cadillac Matchplay championships so this is an experimental #backtolay trade.

I'll also be covering the United Leasing Championships WebCom tour event so keep an eye on the profit and loss spreadsheet for selections. There is some decent value about here on guys who are dropping down from the main tours IMO.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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