WGC Matchplay, WebDotCom and thoughts this week

I never strongly recommend any bets in matchplay format but my top 5 vs the field ratings can be found on the 888sport blog, while some decent value (IMO) shouts and full preview of the WGC Cadillac Matchplay Championships event can be found as usual over on my Unibet golf column. I do have an outside interest at very long odds on Marc Leishman. He's also a good value 2/1 top price to beat Rose in the first match or 5s to win his group.

What I will be doing is trading the new round robin group format on Betfair. The idea is to back favourites from different groups that have the potential to steam (come in strongly) if they win their first two matches, with their odds likely to stay close to their SP if they win just 1 from their two opening matches. The plan then is to exit on Thursday night after all players have played two matches, whatever the position in the book. I've gone for the guys below (plus Gmac and Hideki) - the rest have a E1,000 liability next to them at this stage.

Please note that this is a new format this year for the WGC Cadillac Matchplay championships so this is an experimental #backtolay trade.

I'll also be covering the United Leasing Championships WebCom tour event so keep an eye on the profit and loss spreadsheet for selections. There is some decent value about here on guys who are dropping down from the main tours IMO.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.