The Masters: In-Play Trading Pointers And Advice

Jordan Spieth (3.60) played some excellent golf yesterday but he had a bit of luck in the process. It's likely the Augusta course will get faster and firmer as the week goes on and then Jordan and other shorter hitters may find it tougher to get near the pins.

The 64 Jordan shot is actually excellent for in play Betfair back-to-lay traders as it serves to massively inflate the prices of those a few shots behind, especially those not perceived by the layers as potential Masters winners.

#Backtolay in:play trading pointers

I've dutched Garcia(21.00), Palmer(50.00), Els(50.00), Simpson(110.0) at a combined average of around 9/1. I don't necessarily expect these guys to be there at the end of 72 holes but this type of play is not about that. I do fancy that 1 or 2 may be right there after 54, giving us a good position, and we are getting good value on it happening, especially as they are all out in the (expected) best of conditions on day 2 Friday.

(To a £100 stake, to keep it simple) the strategy is to place £10 on Simpson, £50 on Garcia, and £20 on each of Palmer and Els. This would see approximately a 9/1 return on total outlay should any of the four end up wearing the green jacket. The plan though is to equalise / green up (trade out of your position completely) after 54 holes, if possible - + or -.......

My current overall Masters 2015 (post day 1) position:

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.