NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

Ryder Cup Musings

Here are my thoughts about this week, sent out in the members email on Tuesday. You can join the mailing list for the rest of the current year here - members lounge

"The Ryder Cup isn't really a great event in terms of betting so there won't be many official bets. I've already posted my preview on....

...Unibet though (http://bet.unibet.co.uk/golf/ryder-cup/ryder-cup-betting-preview-mcdowell-kuchar-shine-gleneagles) with a guide towards some possible value plays. I'l also be doing in play on that column during the event with my take on the matches so keep an eye on there if you fancy it. 18 hole matches though are quite random without some sort of specific long term angle. I would advise laying any matches that go below 1.4 on the front nine with a view to trading in play if that is your cup of tea on the exchanges. 2 holes is nothing in matchplay (it's a little more in fourballs)

I do think the Americans are a bit of value at close to 2/1 and I saw a handicap line of +2.5 at close to evens (handicap books are still being built (http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/handicaps)

Will give a quick example of my best play here and that's dutching some correct scores. I do fancy the Europeans, just, because of home advantage and I posted on Twitter this morning that in 75% of last 12 Ryder Cups, both teams have hit at least 12.5 pts. Dutching means combining more than 1 selection and splitting your stake in proportion so as each selection would return the same amount. There is a calculator for this here. Combining top prices on the Europe 15-13, 14.5-13.5 and 15.5-12.5 scorelines would pay approximately 5/2 on your total outlay instead of 1.66 on the outright win. If you add in the 16-12 it still pays 17/10, 16.5-11.5 it pays 5/4 and even if you throw in the 17-11 scoreline at best prices it still pays a shade over evens on your total outlay so you can see where I'm going with this if you fancy the Europeans.

There was another bet discussed on Twitter this morning and that was Coral offering 20s about both teams making birdie on the 1st. It seems that price was based on foursomes rather than fourballs which according to the official site are 1st up. If this is the case the price should be around 7/2-4s. Coral's 20s was down to 10 last time I checked. There are always some big errors in the Ryder Cup. Last time around some may remember a PP gamble in which Martin Kaymer returned free money at 1/2 for those lucky enough to get on after they missed some vital team news.

I do like Matt Kuchar and it seems he could be potentially partnered with Jordan Spieth so I will advise an official bet on him in the overall points scorer market as well as two more for the week (1 in Asia):

Official bets

1u ew Matt Kuchar overall top points scorer @ 20/1 (general)
5u dutch the 14.5-13.5, 15-13, 15.5-12.5 scorelines (European win) @ 5/2 (general top prices)

Asia Pacific Diamond Cup: 1u ew Cameron Smith

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.