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Ryder Cup Musings

Here are my thoughts about this week, sent out in the members email on Tuesday. You can join the mailing list for the rest of the current year here - members lounge

"The Ryder Cup isn't really a great event in terms of betting so there won't be many official bets. I've already posted my preview on....

...Unibet though (http://bet.unibet.co.uk/golf/ryder-cup/ryder-cup-betting-preview-mcdowell-kuchar-shine-gleneagles) with a guide towards some possible value plays. I'l also be doing in play on that column during the event with my take on the matches so keep an eye on there if you fancy it. 18 hole matches though are quite random without some sort of specific long term angle. I would advise laying any matches that go below 1.4 on the front nine with a view to trading in play if that is your cup of tea on the exchanges. 2 holes is nothing in matchplay (it's a little more in fourballs)

I do think the Americans are a bit of value at close to 2/1 and I saw a handicap line of +2.5 at close to evens (handicap books are still being built (http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/handicaps)

Will give a quick example of my best play here and that's dutching some correct scores. I do fancy the Europeans, just, because of home advantage and I posted on Twitter this morning that in 75% of last 12 Ryder Cups, both teams have hit at least 12.5 pts. Dutching means combining more than 1 selection and splitting your stake in proportion so as each selection would return the same amount. There is a calculator for this here. Combining top prices on the Europe 15-13, 14.5-13.5 and 15.5-12.5 scorelines would pay approximately 5/2 on your total outlay instead of 1.66 on the outright win. If you add in the 16-12 it still pays 17/10, 16.5-11.5 it pays 5/4 and even if you throw in the 17-11 scoreline at best prices it still pays a shade over evens on your total outlay so you can see where I'm going with this if you fancy the Europeans.

There was another bet discussed on Twitter this morning and that was Coral offering 20s about both teams making birdie on the 1st. It seems that price was based on foursomes rather than fourballs which according to the official site are 1st up. If this is the case the price should be around 7/2-4s. Coral's 20s was down to 10 last time I checked. There are always some big errors in the Ryder Cup. Last time around some may remember a PP gamble in which Martin Kaymer returned free money at 1/2 for those lucky enough to get on after they missed some vital team news.

I do like Matt Kuchar and it seems he could be potentially partnered with Jordan Spieth so I will advise an official bet on him in the overall points scorer market as well as two more for the week (1 in Asia):

Official bets

1u ew Matt Kuchar overall top points scorer @ 20/1 (general)
5u dutch the 14.5-13.5, 15-13, 15.5-12.5 scorelines (European win) @ 5/2 (general top prices)

Asia Pacific Diamond Cup: 1u ew Cameron Smith

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I will be implementing a new staking plan in 2020, targeting different areas of the markets to try and tackle the current evolution of the golf betting game, which has now become so competitive. Bookmaker place terms IMO are for the most part, outdated.

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