The Waste Management Phoenix Open is an event I particularly look forward to on the PGA Tour from a betting perspective. I tend to look for a certain type of player here, and bombers who like to fire "darts" at pins fit my criteria for TPC Scottsdale. There's one standout stat for me this week and that's 'proximity to the hole' and the theme of my Waste management Phoenix Open preview will be centered around that and an aggressive style of play. Indeed, my picks currently occupy the top four spots in this stat in 2014.
I'm not sure of the average market percentage this week but strangley enough, there are a handful of guys in the 33/1 or so bracket that all look decent value for me here so I've included a few of them along with some triple figure perceived longshots thrown into the staking plan. Picks for Dubai can be found on the spreadsheet and follow me on Twitter:@Nicspicks for more thoughts and insight through both events
Nicspicks man to beat: Bubba Watson 30/1.....
Phoenix Open market #negatives: Gary Woodland 33/1; Graham DeLaet 33/1
Likely to be tipped / backed: Bubba Watson; Ryan Moore; Billy Horschel; Brendan Steele; Martin Laird
The course - TPC Scottsdale Par 71; Length 7,152yds
Key features: Generous landing areas; large greens (approx 6,000 sq ft); Stadium par 3 16th is the signature hole
Premium on: Driving distance; high ball flight and spin control from approaches; proximity to the hole stats
Note: some holes favour a right to left shot shape and an aggressive style of play is an advantage
Waste Management Phoenix Open shortlist (made the cut)
(prices from time of spreadsheet entry)
Pick # 1: Bubba Watson 30/1
Course form: 15-5-29-36; Current form: 23-30-3
Key stats: 3rd in proximity to the hole. Driving distance: 2nd
Other: Power fade for the left hander sets up lovely for the track. Aggressive birdie making style and shot making ability with the short irons should stand him in good stead if he can get the putter warmed up.
Pick # 2: Ryan Moore 35/1
Course form: 4-78-73-14-6; Current form: 10-7-23
Key stats: 36th in total driving. 10th in birdie av. 2nd in proximity to the hole
Other: Game looked superb at Kapalua - said he just couldn't read the greens, which eventually cost him. Ready for a huge year and openly loves this event.
Pick # 3: Billy Horschel 35/1
Course form: 11 Current form: 23-25-6-14 #simmering
Key stats - Par breakers: 6th; GIR%:29th
Other: Has the type of personality that should see him thrive in what is renowned as the most exciting event on the regular tour
Pick # 4: Rickie Fowler 50/1
Course form: mc-26-13-2 Current form: mc-33-8
Key stats: 1st in proximity to the hole
Other: Undergoing changes but perfect course for Fowler to test the improvements made by Butch Harmon. By all accounts, he hasn't been playing too badly, just hasn't been able to hole a putt (according to his Twitter). Fires at every pin.
Pick # 5: Bo Van Pelt 100/1
Course form: 16-8-18 Current form: 48-mc-21-19 #simmering
Key stats: 4th in proximity to the hole; 30th in birdie av.
Other: Showing signs of a return to form after a year of so in the doldrums. A regular near the top of the total driving and total birdie stats and again, TPC Scottsdale is the perfect venue to ignite a spark. Big price. Combined -26 for 4 events this season so not far away.
Pick # 6: N. Colsaerts 110/1
Course form: mc Current form: 19-mc
Key stats: 5th in strokes gained putting; 18th in driving distance.
Other: prominent over the first few days at Torrey Pines. Holing out beautifully from inside 10ft and if he combines that with his big hitting at TPC Scottsdale, you have a recipe for success. Went 65-75 here last year so that mc may be a bit misleading.
Pick # 7: K. Aphibarnrat 175/1
Course form: n/a Current form: mc-24-18-9-5
Key stats: n/a
Other: new territory for the "Asian John Daly" but I'm a little bemused by the quote for a player who in theory the course here should suit down to the ground. Worth a speculative play and maybe one to look at FRL too.
Best of the rest (from shortlist): Bill Haas; Matt Every, Brendan Steele, Johnny Vegas
Waste Management Phoenix Open finalised staking plan
1u ew B. Watson @ 30/1
1u ew R. Moore @ 35/1
1u ew B. Horschel @ 35/1
0.75u ew R. Fowler @ 50/1
0.75u ew Nic Colsaerts @ 110/1
0.5u ew BVP @100/1
0.5u ew K. Aphibarnrat @ 175/1
Tipster comp: win a £100 free bet this week with Stanjames