NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks, Tips and guide

The Waste Management Phoenix Open is an event I particularly look forward to on the PGA Tour from a betting perspective. I tend to look for a certain type of player here, and bombers who like to fire "darts" at pins fit my criteria for TPC Scottsdale. There's one standout stat for me this week and that's 'proximity to the hole' and the theme of my Waste management Phoenix Open preview will be centered around that and an aggressive style of play. Indeed, my picks currently occupy the top four spots in this stat in 2014.

I'm not sure of the average market percentage this week but strangley enough, there are a handful of guys in the 33/1 or so bracket that all look decent value for me here so I've included a few of them along with some triple figure perceived longshots thrown into the staking plan. Picks for Dubai can be found on the spreadsheet and follow me on Twitter:@Nicspicks for more thoughts and insight through both events

Nicspicks man to beat: Bubba Watson 30/1.....


Phoenix Open market #negatives: Gary Woodland 33/1; Graham DeLaet 33/1

Likely to be tipped / backed: Bubba Watson; Ryan Moore; Billy Horschel; Brendan Steele; Martin Laird


The course - TPC Scottsdale Par 71; Length 7,152yds

Key features: Generous landing areas; large greens (approx 6,000 sq ft); Stadium par 3 16th is the signature hole

Premium on: Driving distance; high ball flight and spin control from approaches; proximity to the hole stats

Note: some holes favour a right to left shot shape and an aggressive style of play is an advantage

Waste Management Phoenix Open shortlist (made the cut)

(prices from time of spreadsheet entry)

Pick # 1: Bubba Watson 30/1

Course form: 15-5-29-36; Current form: 23-30-3

Key stats: 3rd in proximity to the hole. Driving distance: 2nd

Other: Power fade for the left hander sets up lovely for the track. Aggressive birdie making style and shot making ability with the short irons should stand him in good stead if he can get the putter warmed up.

Pick # 2: Ryan Moore 35/1

Course form: 4-78-73-14-6; Current form: 10-7-23

Key stats: 36th in total driving. 10th in birdie av. 2nd in proximity to the hole

Other: Game looked superb at Kapalua - said he just couldn't read the greens, which eventually cost him. Ready for a huge year and openly loves this event.

Pick # 3: Billy Horschel 35/1

Course form: 11 Current form: 23-25-6-14 #simmering

Key stats - Par breakers: 6th; GIR%:29th

Other: Has the type of personality that should see him thrive in what is renowned as the most exciting event on the regular tour

Pick # 4: Rickie Fowler 50/1

Course form: mc-26-13-2 Current form: mc-33-8

Key stats: 1st in proximity to the hole

Other: Undergoing changes but perfect course for Fowler to test the improvements made by Butch Harmon. By all accounts, he hasn't been playing too badly, just hasn't been able to hole a putt (according to his Twitter). Fires at every pin.

Pick # 5: Bo Van Pelt 100/1

Course form: 16-8-18 Current form: 48-mc-21-19 #simmering

Key stats: 4th in proximity to the hole; 30th in birdie av.

Other: Showing signs of a return to form after a year of so in the doldrums. A regular near the top of the total driving and total birdie stats and again, TPC Scottsdale is the perfect venue to ignite a spark. Big price. Combined -26 for 4 events this season so not far away.

Pick # 6: N. Colsaerts 110/1

Course form: mc Current form: 19-mc

Key stats: 5th in strokes gained putting; 18th in driving distance.

Other: prominent over the first few days at Torrey Pines. Holing out beautifully from inside 10ft and if he combines that with his big hitting at TPC Scottsdale, you have a recipe for success. Went 65-75 here last year so that mc may be a bit misleading.

Pick # 7: K. Aphibarnrat 175/1

Course form: n/a Current form: mc-24-18-9-5

Key stats: n/a

Other: new territory for the "Asian John Daly" but I'm a little bemused by the quote for a player who in theory the course here should suit down to the ground. Worth a speculative play and maybe one to look at FRL too.

Best of the rest (from shortlist): Bill Haas; Matt Every, Brendan Steele, Johnny Vegas

Waste Management Phoenix Open finalised staking plan
1u ew B. Watson @ 30/1
1u ew R. Moore @ 35/1
1u ew B. Horschel @ 35/1
0.75u ew R. Fowler @ 50/1
0.75u ew Nic Colsaerts @ 110/1
0.5u ew BVP @100/1
0.5u ew K. Aphibarnrat @ 175/1

Tipster comp: win a £100 free bet this week with Stanjames


Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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