Volvo Golf Champions Tips, Picks And Guide

The first installment of European tour action in 2014 comes from Durban Country Club in the shape of the Volvo Golf Champions, and again it will largely be a watching brief, with no current form and only a smattering of course form to go on. There are a couple of O/R and top ten prices that catch the eye in particular.....

The course:

Durban Country club; Par 72; length: 6,689 yds

Key features: Undulating, beach side, links style course. Tree-lined with tight landing areas.

Notes: Very wet in the area. Course tests all aspects of your game. Likely to be windy.

Premium on: hitting fairways, especially with extra rainfall. Controlling ball flight. Strategic play.

Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for extra views and insight

Nicspicks' man to beat: Charl Schwartzel

Likely to be backed in: Louis Oosthuizen 16/1, B Grace 25/1, D. Fichardt 80/1

Market #negatives: T. Bjorn 14/1, J. Donaldson 12/1 (markedly underpriced IMO)

Volvo Golf Champions Shortlist

MA Jimenez 20/1

Current form: 8-20-1; Course form: n/a

Key stats: (2013): 32nd in Stroke average; Driving accuracy 68.76%;

Other: Course right up the Spaniard's street. Keen to prove he still has what it takes.

Notes: Jimenez has now turned 50

Branden Grace 25/1

Course form: 21-7; Current form: 52-20-20-6 #progressive

Key stats: (2013): n/a

Other: Low ball flight will be of benefit round here. Looking to bounce back from poor season. Home advantage. Inflated price.

Peter Uihlein 33/1

Course form: n/a; Current form: 55-57-51-10

Key stats: (2013): Putts per round 29.15; GIR 68.78%;

Other: Proven what he can do in the wind with a win in Madeira, 2nd at the Dunhill Links and he also held the halfway lead at Carton House where I saw a lot of him live.

He said: “In college in Oklahoma it was quite windy all the time, so I quite enjoy the wind"

Julien Quesne 55/1

Course form: wd-5; Current form: 34-12-47

Key stats: (2013): GIR 70.72%

Other: 20th and 7th in last two links outings. Impressive win at the Italian Open.

Darren Fichardt 80/1

Course form: 5-61-1-mc-29; Current form: 15-21-37-mc-12-50

Key stats: (2013): putts per round: 28.07;

Other: Vast course knowledge. Returned to form at the Nedbank. Markedly overpriced in top ten market.

Michael Hoey 110/1

Course form: 52-mc-25; Current form: mc-wd-50

Key stats: (2013): n/a

Other: Links and wind specialist. Can turn it on from nowhere. Injury problems should be behind him.

Volvo Golf Champions finalised staking plan:
1u ew Branden Grace @ 25/1 (BV,Lads)
0.75u ew Julien Quesne @ 55/1 (BV,SJ)
2u D. Fichardt top ten @ 9/2 (Skybet)
2u M. Hoey top ten @ 6/1 (SJ)

Trading zone

Volvo golf Champions Potential Long odds #back-to-lays: M. Hoey, D. Fichardt S. Thornton - lay targets 12.0-16.0

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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