Hyundai Tournament of champions selections and guide

I've got a bit of catching up to do already in 2014 after a poor pre Xmas run and there's a new format on the blog this year which will take shape as we go on. Basically, with social media taking off and so many people now writing previews as a hobby and Twitter destroying odds early, I'm going to make Nicspicks more facts and figures and straight to the point. This year will also have more of a focus on the exchange trading side.

We start with the Hyundai Tournament Of Champions breakdown which is a tough one to predict for obvious form reasons but, maybe less obviously, the main reason is actually the severe trade winds which blow across the course....

The course: Plantation at Kapalua; Length 7,452 yards; Par 73

Key Features: Wide open fairways, large undulating greens, elevation changes

Premium on: Controlling ball flight from approaches in the wind, driving distance, converting tricky short putts

Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for extra views and insight

Nicspicks man to beat: Adam Scott 5/1

Market Negatives (notably underpriced IMO): Dustin Johnson 7/1

Hyundai Tournament of Champions shortlist

Ryan Moore

Current form: 9-1-50-23-7; Course form: 6-28

Key stats: Total putting: 6th; Total driving: 2nd

Other: Back to the top of his form at back end of last season and expecting a big 2014

Martin Laird

Current form: 61-20; Course form: 4-2 (scintillating)

Key stats: averaging just under 300 yards from the tee since 2012

Other: Wind competent. known fan of this week's destination.

Jason Dufner

Current form: 34-13 (progressive); Course form: 18

Key stats: (2013) 20th putting from 5-15'; 7th in par 4 performance

Other: Wind capable. -6 through last 14 holes to close here last year.

Jimmy walker

Current form: 1-12-6-46 1st gear; Course form: -

Key stats: 2nd in driving distance, putting and birdie av. in 2014 (4 events)

Other: New player under Butch Harmon. Owns low rounds of 64 and 62 already in season 2014. Backed at 33s in full field events last year. A real one to watch in 2014.

Sang Moon-Bae

Current form: 68-52-15 progressive ; Course form: -

Key stats: (2013) 18th in total birdies; 9th in putting from 5-10'

Other: General good early season form. Makes birdies in bunches. Should prove one of Asia's finest after maiden PGA win at HP Byron Nelson

Trading pointer (Back-to-lay): 1pt Jimmy Walker at 40.0 and look to lay 4pts at 10.0 - pays 3/1.

Finalised EW staking plan

1u EW Jason Dufner @ 25/1 (general)
1u EW Ryan Moore to shoot lowest round @ 20/1 (Skybet)
1u EW Jimmy walker to shoot lowest round @ 25/1 (Skybet)
0.75u EW S. Moon Bae to shoot lowest round at 60/1 (Skybet)

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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