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Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Tips, Picks And Guide

It's the start of the desert swing this week where we produced Jamie Donaldson and Chris Wood wins last year, added to a few places, and hopefully things will follow suit after a mini turnaround in recent form last week on Nicspicks. Rory McIlroy and former Dubai resident Henrik Stenson (who really wants an Abu Dhabi Championship win) head the betting but it's a German who gets my full attention: (Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for more insight throughout the week)

Nicspicks' Abu Dhabi Championship man to beat: Martin Kaymer

Abu Dhabi Championship market #negatives: Sergio Garcia 10/1; Phil Mickelson 16/1.......


Tipster comp: win a £100 free bet this week with Stanjames


Likely to be tipped / backed: Martin Kaymer 18/1; Paul Casey 45/1; Branden Grace 40/1

The course: Abu Dhabi GC - Par 72, 7,600yds

Key Features: Long, undulating, fast and firm with large greens. Numerous lakes and strategically placed bunkers. Fairways "tighter than average" but rough generally not too penal.

Premium on: Total driving. Distance control. Dealing with fast and firm conditions on and around the greens.

Note: Course is exposed and main challenge can be offered by the wind. Sand storms common.

Abu Dhabi Championship Shortlist (made the final cut)

Tip #1: Martin Kaymer 18/1

Course form: 6-mc-1-1-2-1; current form: 16-19-25-8-13

Key stats: holds the 72 hole tournament low at Abu Dhabi GC (-24). Averaging over 72.5% GIR% the last 4 seasons.

Other: I've seen some of the best golf I've ever seen played here by the German and if ever anyone "owned" a course, this is it.

He said: "It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Abu Dhabi Golf Club’s National Course, which is almost like a second home for me. I also feel extremely comfortable on the tee and can read the greens well"


Tip #2: Joost Luiten 33/1

Course form: 6-42-23; current form: 3-16-4-18 #simmering

Key stats: 4th in stroke average and 13th in GIR% 2013.

Other: 4th in his last start in this part of the world and he looks like he's about to peak


Tip #3: Paul Casey 45/1

Course form: 23-18-26-1-mc-1; current form: 19-54-12-20-8

Key stats: n/a

Other: #horsesforcourses 3rd round 65 last week from a rusty Casey on a course that probably doesn't suit shows signs of form. Only Kaymer has a better recent winning record on this track and Casey has returned to playing some of the world class golf he used to.


Tip #4: B. Wiesberger 40/50 to 1

Course form: 21-mc; current form: 26-12-34-7 #simmering

Key stats: averaged 300 yds from the tee in 2013

Other: Came back from a poor first round here last year. Has the power game for the course and if he can hole his tiddlers, could be a feature. 50s available but I prefer 6 places.


Tip #5: Max Kieffer 200/1

Course form: n/a; current form: mc-12-16-18

Key stats: n/a

Other: Can go super low and may be inspired by idol and fellow Dusseldorf man Martin #kaymer's success at Abu Dhabi GC. Will no doubt be looking for advice of his compatriot and big things are expected of Kieffer this year.

Best of the rest (from shortlist): J. Donaldson 28/1, B. Grace 40/1. Top 10: Marcel Siem (125), Alex Levy(200)

Finalised staking plan (odds at time of entry to spreadsheet)

EW places 1-6 on the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship with Stanjames

1.25u ew Martin Kaymer @ 18/1(Betvic)
1u ew Joost Luiten @ 33/1(Ladbrokes)
0.75u ew B. Wiesberger @ 40/1 (1-6)(Stanjames)
0.75u ew P.Casey @ 45/1 (1-6)(Stanjames)
0.5u ew M. Kieffer FRL @ 150/1(Betfred)/ 1u Top 10 @ 16/1

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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