Portugal Masters Picks 2013

Birdies are the brief this week in Portugal as the 7,200 par 71 Oceanico Victoria Resort Course plays host to the Portugal Masters. Average to generous width fairways with the rough down means the bombers will have a big advantage; Greens are large and extremely undulating so as usual, accurate approach play will be key....

Alex Noren is a player that more often than not comes into my thoughts at a setup like the Portugal Masters. Currently he seems to be enjoying himself over there as this recent quote from his Twitter would suggest: "In Portugal having a blast with Mr. K. Broberg! #holesomeputts", and after some time away from the course, Noren returned with a top 40 at the Dunhill Links. The Swede closed with a Sunday 62 here in 2009 to show what he can do at this sort of track and the multiple winner averaged 20th place here in the five editions prior to his MC last year - a quote of 50/1 with Stanjames looks a good ew price.

Scott Jamieson's opening Portugal Masters price of 125/1 is a bit surprising to me, albeit a welcome one! Showing progressive form of 67-23-17, Jamieson posted a 12th place finish here last year and he continued showing signs of his return to form last week at the Seve trophy. The course set up should suit the big hitting Scotsman, to whom a fast start isn't alien, and I'll also be backing him EW in the first round leader market at 100/1 with Stanjames

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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