Perth International Picks 2013 from Lake Karrinyup

Well, quite an unbelievable Sunday in Portugal adding to more personal woes but I'm not one to dwell on tales of balls and sticks so it's onwards to pastures new for the Perth International - the last event for guys to sneak into that top 110 for the closing stretch of the 2013 golf season.

Lake Karrinyup in Australia is the venue for the Perth International and having learned that Geoff Ogilvy had a hand in the course re-design in 2007 (not sure why he's teeing it up at the Shriners), it's no surprise then that there's plenty of room for maneuver from the tee, with slick greens equipped with run off areas placing the premium this week on approaches, and - to a lesser extent - scrambling. It's no coincidence that tee to green specialists BVP and Jason Dufner ran away from the Perth International field last year.

For those not on the members mailing list, full picks and staking plan for the Perth International Open and Shriners will be available late Wednesday evening on the spreadsheet. If you fancy backing my golf picks for nothing, Bet365 offer £200 in free bets for new customers.

Widely regarded as Australia's finest young talent, Nathan Holman recently finished a top amateur career by turning pro and has posted progressive finishes of T20-3 since then on the Australian Tour. Indeed Holman led after the first round of the Victorian PGA earlier in the year and has finished in the top 20 in his last five starts in Oz, which includes three top fives. "I'm feeling pretty confident and I'm ready to step out and win in my first week as a professional" is a recent quote from the youngster and this boy can mix it with the big boys. Holman is one to watch on home soil at 80/1 with Spreadex this week.

Mark Tullo comes in at a big price of 140/1 with Bet365. The Chilean has been noticeable early on in tournaments of late but has struggled to put four rounds together. Figures of 64-78-67 saw him just miss the three day cut at St.Andrews but he flew out of the blocks in Portugal again last week with an opening 66, eventually finishing 38th. His best recent finishes have come in lesser events such as a T2 in Madeira this year and a T2 in Russia back in 2012. Tullo posted top 25s in Cran and in Italy in far stronger fields and his game is simmering at the moment. Considering his fast starts of late, again the first round leader market also looks a potential bet (prices to follow).

As always, follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for more exclusive thoughts and insight before and throughout the week's events. Receive all selections via the members mailing list.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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