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JT Shriners Hospitals for children Open Picks 2013

The second event of the old Fall Series gets underway this week and this event is annually one of the biggest feasts of birdies all year round. Nevada / Vegas is the destination and as such, it's more of a holiday than a golf tournament and plenty of celebs etc will be around during the early part of the week for the pro-ams - one of which is held by local man Charlie Hoffman. Charlie has two top sixes at the JT Shriners Hospitals Open in recent years and is a backable value proposition at an opening quote of 55/1 with Stanjames. Another local, Kevin Na - fresh off a top 5 - also tempts on his home track at 45s but I'm looking elsewhere....


I've been mentioning on Twitter for a while that I had two players lined up for this part of the season: The first of those is serial bottler and birdie machine Brendon De Jonge and we can certainly forget about him at ridiculous odds of 30/1. The second is Kevin Stadler and the anticipated triple figure odds are indeed available for the JT shriners Hospitals Open pick - advised on the members email 6 places at 100/1 with Paddy.

In a similar mould to De Jonge, Stadler can make birdies in bunches, ranking 18th in birdie average this year and an eye catching 12th in proximity to the hole - two vital stats this week. Again, like De Jonge, Stadler is uncomfortable to say the least while in contention so there's no better event for him to get over the line that one of this ilk. The big man played some of his best stuff in the recent playoff events, topped by a fourth place at The Barclays which included two rounds of 64, and I've been dying to back him since!

Remember Bet365 are offering £200 in free bets for new customers to use on this event

You'll notice a theme of birdie making this week for my JT Shriners Hospitals Open picks and that's because quite simply the winning total will be very low and par breakers are the brief. Fairways are generous at TPC Summerlin, the course sets up easy and greens - while some are elevated - are large, and roll smoothly, so a hot putter will be needed from 8-20' range. Proximity to the hole from approaches will be vital.

Brooks Koepka at 40/1 6 places with PP is a new name to a lot of people. He's caused a storm on the European Challenge Tour this year and now leads the main European circuit in driving distance. He led the Frys.com last week for the majority and TPC Summerlin is a course the he can overpower. Koepka only got in as an alternate and for the traders, he represents a very good back-to-lay potential....

For all 6 JT Shriners Hospitals for Children Open picks visit the members area



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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

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Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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