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HSBC Champions Trading

The following is a play I've been using of late on players towards the middle of the market that I perceive should be higher. I often refer to the word "flip" as early on in tournaments I'll find a lot of them replace the market leaders. As such, I've been working on the best strategy to take advantage of small to larger positions on this. Open a Betfair account here and try this strategy for yourself.

In truth it's been a bit tedious and I've been fiddling with this type of strategy for the last 18 months to 2 years to try and find the perfect plan / exit points / targeted odds etc, but I figure it will be worth it in the end. There will be much more on my trading exploits plus research and what's worked and what hasn't when I eventully get my Ebook done....


This week I've simply done the following on the HSBC champions:

I've targeted my middle of the pack fancies from my HSBC Champions blog preview and pretty much dutched them. €42.50 on Francesco @ 40.0, €32.50 on Hanson @ 50.0 and €25 on Haas @ 65.0 earlier in the week gives the book you see below:



What I do then is I place a lay order on each of those three players for the full €100 outlay so if any of them hit those target odds, we are free rolling. Make sure to tick the "keep at in play" box. From years of experience I know pretty much exactly what needs to happen in terms of scoring for these odds to be hit. Again, I'll go into this in detail in my Ebook but for now, I'd be hoping one of them may hit 8.0 in-play in round 2, all going well.



I generally review after 36 holes and this is where the strategies can become a little ambiguous for want of a better word. There are generally a few options at this point and it simply comes down to your own style as to how you want to proceed. Sometimes all three will have bombed out so there's nothing you can do, sometimes there may be the potential to take your £100 back or exit for a % of your initial liability. Sometimes two of your 3 may have hit the target 8.0 odds and you've already doubled your money and your book looks fantastic and already with the option to exit for a heavy profit.

Personally, from study (and this takes a big tournament sample size, hence the 2 years reserch period so far), I like to leave it go 54 holes and exit then. This is obviously more volatile but seems so far that it will be the most profitable over the long term. If you fancy giving this a go, visit the HSBC Betfair market here (afflink)

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.