HSBC Champions Trading

The following is a play I've been using of late on players towards the middle of the market that I perceive should be higher. I often refer to the word "flip" as early on in tournaments I'll find a lot of them replace the market leaders. As such, I've been working on the best strategy to take advantage of small to larger positions on this. Open a Betfair account here and try this strategy for yourself.

In truth it's been a bit tedious and I've been fiddling with this type of strategy for the last 18 months to 2 years to try and find the perfect plan / exit points / targeted odds etc, but I figure it will be worth it in the end. There will be much more on my trading exploits plus research and what's worked and what hasn't when I eventully get my Ebook done....

This week I've simply done the following on the HSBC champions:

I've targeted my middle of the pack fancies from my HSBC Champions blog preview and pretty much dutched them. €42.50 on Francesco @ 40.0, €32.50 on Hanson @ 50.0 and €25 on Haas @ 65.0 earlier in the week gives the book you see below:

What I do then is I place a lay order on each of those three players for the full €100 outlay so if any of them hit those target odds, we are free rolling. Make sure to tick the "keep at in play" box. From years of experience I know pretty much exactly what needs to happen in terms of scoring for these odds to be hit. Again, I'll go into this in detail in my Ebook but for now, I'd be hoping one of them may hit 8.0 in-play in round 2, all going well.

I generally review after 36 holes and this is where the strategies can become a little ambiguous for want of a better word. There are generally a few options at this point and it simply comes down to your own style as to how you want to proceed. Sometimes all three will have bombed out so there's nothing you can do, sometimes there may be the potential to take your £100 back or exit for a % of your initial liability. Sometimes two of your 3 may have hit the target 8.0 odds and you've already doubled your money and your book looks fantastic and already with the option to exit for a heavy profit.

Personally, from study (and this takes a big tournament sample size, hence the 2 years reserch period so far), I like to leave it go 54 holes and exit then. This is obviously more volatile but seems so far that it will be the most profitable over the long term. If you fancy giving this a go, visit the HSBC Betfair market here (afflink)
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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