2013-14 Frys.com Open Cordevalle Picks

We're breaking into the home stretch of the golf season now and the Frys.com Open from Cordevalle golf club kicks off the new wrap around 2014 PGA tour schedule. The old "Fall series" which the Frys.com Open was part of has been scrapped and looking through the field, it seems a lot stronger for it. This is generally one of my favourite times of the golfing calender for betting purposes, with many big names opting to sit out. Form is not so obvious and I often tend to find a few outstanding value under the radar prices over this period. Players that are relatively unknown often show up on leaderboards and I will be targeting mainly Web.com Tour players this weeks at the Frys.com Open....

Cordevalle golf club is in the Californian valleys, playing average length to a par of 71. We will see some birdie shootouts in the coming weeks but Cordevalle will take some finesse, with severe elevation changes placing emphasis on distance control and steep faced bunkering adding to the test.

Fry's.com Open picks

For those not on the members list, full picks and staking plan for the Frys.com Open and Portugal Masters will be available on Wednesday evening

Jon Peterson @ 40/1 ew with Betfred is the outstanding name in the Frys.com Open field for me and just about backable at this price IMO (although I was hoping for bigger). A man that's no stranger to the main tour where his best finish in 2013 is a T8 at the Zurich classic, Peterson also posted a memorable top 4 finish in the 2012 US Open. Currently in an outstanding vein of form, averaging just over 11th spot in his last nine starts on the Web.com tour, Peterson's recent numbers read 3-T5-T3-3-T2 and will probably be backed off the charts.

Second up is Spencer Levin, a perfect fit if profiling a winner for the old fall series events. Levin has been re-finding his game on the Web.com Tour after injury problems and has posted three top 10s in his last 7 starts there. Born and residing in California, this week's Frys.com Open location, Levin ranked 3rd for total birdies in 2011 on the PGA tour before his injury problems. He also posted a seventh place finish here in 2012 and looks a bet at 150/1 ew with Ladbrokes.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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