KLM Open and BMW PGA Championship preview and tips

Moving into a period I admittedly am not too fond of in terms of golf betting, beginning with the KLM Open, and limited field of 70 for the BMW Championship. In saying that, things on the blog have been pretty quiet lately so we can't do a whole lot worse! Again, previews will be short and sweet this week with all picks to be added directly to the spreadsheet. Stanjames are once again places 1,2,3,4,5,6 on the KLM Open

On a positive note, the KLM Open does return to a course I love matching players with as the links at Kennemer reappears on the European Tour schedule. A quick look down recent leaderboards there will give you a feel for the type of player we're looking for and there's unsurprisingly a strong Irish presence on them, at a course just 1.5k from the sea. Indeed In the last two editions of the KLM Open at Kennemer, Irishmen have filled two of the top four spots.....

Damien McGrane and Peter Lawrie both boast excellent records here at the KLM Open. Of the last four tournaments played at Kennemer, between them they've recorded four top six spots, with Peter Lawrie only narrowly missing out in a three-way playoff vs course specialist Simon Dyson and an outside pick for us this week, Peter Hedblom.

Two other Irishmen though grab the attention for some subsidiary markets while another with ties to Ireland in Former Irish Open winner Richard Finch is also on the radar. Highly rated Kevin Phelan makes his professional bow this week at the KLM Open and I'm currently looking for the best angle and price on him, while it's the same story with David Higgins who has some Kennemer course form and comes off the back of a top 30 in Wales. Higgins hit the first round leader crossbar for us in the Moroccan wind earlier in the year if I remember correctly.

It's Aussie Marcus Fraser though that stands out for me as the value this week at 66s. Kennemer is one of the shortest courses the players will face circa 6,600 yards and Fraser is short and extremely accurate off the tee, regularly averaging around the 70% mark of fairways hit through the years, and well used to controlling his ball flight in high winds. Add to that his ability on the greens, his returning top 20 in Crans last week and his 12th place finish on his previous start at Kennemer and he stands out at a price for the KLM Open.

Check the spreadsheet later for final KLM Open selections as well as anything I find for the BMW Championship across the pond in the Playoffs.

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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