Greenbrier Classic Tips

A low scoring week is expected when the players tee it up at the Greenbrier Classic and birdies are the brief on a track where Webb Simpson is the man to beat for me. A hot putter coupled with great ball striking ability is a plus on any course but this week even more so and there's one man from the pack that's been getting my attention all day:

My headline tip was a feature in the earlier stages at the AT&T but Russell Henley (50/1) slipped to a T34 hence his price being a little inflated this week. Brandt Snedeker's younger brother (in another life) had a couple of top sixes in his previous 6 events before this - including at Memorial - and he looks a perfect fit for the course criteria; Henley ranks 16th in total driving and 8th in putting from 15-25' - a perfect concoction for the Greenbrier Classic in my opinion and he knows how to get the job done as we saw in Hawaii. His mate Ben Martin just won on the Tour and he could also draw inspiration from this success. I rate him at 28s.

Graeme DeLaet is someone who has caught the attention of the odds compilers in recent weeks but it's his fellow Canadian that's on my radar, and at almost quadrouple the price. The Greenbrier Classic has been a great tournament for some of the lesser names on the PGA Tour over the last three years and 100/1 (Coral, Sportingbet) David Hearn is another that falls into this category. Hearn has two from two top 20 finishes at the Greenbrier classic and his current form is nothing short of excellent: he tied for 21st at both Memorial and the US Open in vastly superior fields to this one. Hearn ticks all the boxes, ranking 4th in total putting (3rd from 5-15') and 8th in par four birdies or better and is a strong sleeper fancy of mine this week.

My final two tips this week are guys that divide the betting community: Jimmy Walker has been the topic of much debate this year and Charlie Wi doesn't have the ability to get over the line according to some but at 66/1 (1-5) and 80/1 six places respectively, both are firmly on my Greenbrier Classic radar.

Walker has a couple of top 4 finishes to his name at the Greenbrier Classic and shot a 62 in round 3 in 2011 here. He looked like he had the tournament in his grasp only to miss out at the death. Jimmy ranks an eye catching 3rd in par four birdies and is another who possesses the total driving coupled with flat stick ability and could reignite this week.

Charlie Wi is a player I like, especially with a back-to-lay approach but 6 places 80/1 with Paddypower in what is a weak Greenbrier Classic field looks decent value to me. Wi was 3rd here last year and returned to form last week with a T7, shooting a magnificent 29 on the back nine on Sunday. Charlie is very prone to birdie streaks and that's the brief around the Old White TPC.

For full picks, odds and staking plan, see my profit and loss spreadsheet. Follow me on Twitter :@Nicspicks as always for more thoughts and insight

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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