Bridgestone Invitational and Reno Tahoe open tips

A strong field assembles at Firestone for the WGC Bridgestone Invitational while a modified stableford format will be implemented once again at altitude in Reno. An exciting week is in store ahead of the final major of the season and a concoction of total driving ability and strong mid-distance putting is the order of the day in Akron, Ohio. Firestone CC plays 7,400 yards to a par of 70 and conditions are generally fast and firm. Pin positions can be tough after day one and there's a premium on hitting fairways to access them from approaches.......

My three main picks this week all fit the same type of profile: Good drivers of the ball who excel from mid range on the greens. 35/1 Jason Day was a big factor at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational in 2011 and thrives in the big events. The Aussie may be struggling slightly with a wrist problem but has had a couple of week's rest. Day ranks 41st in total driving and 21st in strokes gained putting in 2013.

Keegan Bradley hit a 66/1 winner for us at the Bridgestone Invitational last year where he was tipped largely due to his performance on the greens the year previous. He seemed to have the run of them and this continued over to 2012 where he put in a flawless performance with the short stick (or long stick in Keegan's case!). Couple this to a total driving stat of 4th in 2013 and add in a morale boosting T15 at the Open, and 40s looks fair with Ladbrokes.

Ryan Moore held the joint 2nd round lead here at the Bridgestone in 2011 and arguably the two strongest departments of his game are his driving and mid length putting, ranking 27th in TD and 10th in putting from 5-15', despite an indifferent season. In saying that, if we discard the US Open, his average finish is 18.5 in his last four starts and he put himself in position to win at Muirfield after 54. 100s is certainly worth a play here on a man tipped for huge things in his amateur days. Moore may be a decent long odds potential back to lay option for traders.

One firmly under the radar for my last Bridgestone Invitational pick this week and one that may be best worth taking on in the first round leader or "to shoot lowest round" market (if possible). Under the radar this week maybe but it certainly wasn't the case this time last year when Scott Piercy was the "hottest golfer on the planet" and on the back of Canadian Open success. For those that believe in the theory of golfers peaking at certain times of the year, Piercy also won the Reno-Taho at the corresponding time in 2011. In a recent Q&A on Twitter I also recall him saying the Firestone course is one he strongly fancied challenging on or something along those lines and that stuck, as it surprised me. T19 here at Firestone last year.

The Reno-Tahoe Open is the other event going on this week and it's in the form of a modified stableford which lends itself to an attacking style of play. We hit places with Andres Romero and John Daly last year and birdie makers and course specialists are the focus. The Montreux course plays at altitude so distance control is vital and it could pay to stick with players that have plenty of course experience. The recent Greenbrier event was similar so a quick scan of the leaderboard there won't hurt either.

For my Reno-Tahoe picks, and staking plans and best prices for both events, see the bottom of my P&L spreadsheet here BetVic are going 6 places in Reno.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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