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Alstom Open De France Picks

Another good win last week with Bill Haas taking down Congressional. Bill was advised first on the members email at 40s on Monday and makes it 10 o/r winners from 50 events covered this year at average odds of over 40/1. Phase 2 is now finished and as some of you know I'll be taking a little time off the blog in the next while. The plan is to do a couple of short previews of the Alstom Open De France and the Greenbrier - two nice little events, and get an Open championship antepost preview up by next week to tide you over while I'm away!!


Tough test of golf this week at a lengthy 7,350 yards par 71 track where solid ball striking is essential. Scoring is generally high with single figures under par good enough for the last two victors at Le Golf Nacional - venue for the 2018 Ryder Cup. Keeping the ball in play is vital to scoring and water trouble lurks throughout


Bet Vic are already up with Alstom Open De France prices, going 6 places, and two 66/1 picks jump off the page: (prices subject to change)

The first of those picks is Richard Sterne who I followed on Thursday last week at the Irish Open for a bit. A slow enough start for Sterne - eventually finishing in a tie for 22nd - but it looked like his game was just simmering again after an explosive start to 2013 in which he's regained top form after injury. Sterne has plenty of course experience and excels in all departments of the game which the Alstom Open De France track at Le Golf Nacional will test.

The second pick is a player with eye catching Alstom Open de France form and who showed signs of his best last week in Ireland. Anders Hansen has five top 11s including three top 6s here in his last eleven starts and obviously loves the place as he hasn't failed to tee it up since the turn of the century. T22 with Sterne here in Ireland, he's been in the mix this season with a third place in Malaysia and is another equipped with the attributes to tackle Le Golf Nacional.

2013 Alstom Open de France picks (updated 17.45pm Monday)

All books are up now and two more players nearer the top of the market get my attention at the prices. Both are guys who I also followed for a spell last week. The brief at Le Golf Nacional is fairways and greens and two of the best drivers of the ball on tour are Francesco Molinari, who comes in at 30/1 6 places with Stanjames and Ross Fisher.

Molinari was up and down in the Irish Open and two poor rounds meant he was never in contention but signs are his game is nearly there. Francesco closed out at the Alstom Open De France last year with a fabulous 64 to finish runner up so we know what he can do around here. Ross Fisher is simply too big a price for me; he was half that quote of 50/1 for the Irish Open last week where he just couldn't get the putter going and worth a bet at double those odds IMO.

Fancy some free golf bets this week? Up to £200 in with Bet365 here

Pick #1: 1pt ew Richard sterne @ 66/1 (BetVic 1-6)
Pick #2: 1pt ew Anders Hansen @ 66/1 (BetVic 1-6)
Pick #3: 1.25pts ew Fran Molinari @ 30/1 (Stanjames places 1-6)
Pick #4: 0.75pts ew Ross Fisher @ 50/1 (Coral)
First round leader: 0.5pts ew James Morrison @ 150/1 (Paddypower)

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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