Lyoness Open and St. Jude Classic preview

Two lower key events this week as many of the bigger names prepare away from competitive action for the 2nd of the years majors at Merion next week. Often in these events, we find some of the best value of the year as odds compilers minds can also be in fast forward to US Open week. Possibly no better example of this than the price disparity of one Mikko Korhonen - a player I confess I don't have an opinion on - who opened at 35/1 with one book, swiftly followed by another compiler elsewhere standing firm at 100s. That's a no bet for me though as I know little about the Finn.

Update: Full list of this week's bets are now available to all on the spreadsheet. Prices are from emails sent out on Monday to those that have donated.

A quick run down of my headline picks and It's a young Argentine I have my eye firmly on at this week's Lyoness Open and that's Emilliano Grillo, who I advised at 45/1 with bet365 in Monday's members email. Grillo is being touted for big things in some quarters and finished in the top 10 of his first ever European Tour event in Africa in 2012. Grillo also picked up a top 10 at the Lyoness Open last year and if we exclude the BMW at Wentworth, he's averaged 17th in his last four tour starts in much stronger fields. Grillo averages almost 300 yards off the tee with an accuracy rate pushing 70% of fairways hit, and with the Diamond course set to play soft and long, the Argentine could go very well here at a price.

Across the other side of the pond, there's one man leaping out at me for the St. Jude Classic. Robert Karlsson (already advised at 40/1) has a real affinity with TPC Southwind having amazingly missed out in back to back playoffs in the 2011/12 seasons. In the first of these, he played almost flawless golf and he and Harris Frazar blitzed the field. The course obviously fits his eye and Robert comes into the St. Jude Classic this week having qualified for the US Open with rounds of 66-68 for a -10 total at Brookside. Karlsson posted a top five at the Wells Fargo, opened with a 64 at the Byron Nelson and was a feature in the earlier stages at Memorial last week so form is clearly peaking after something similar to a dose of the yips in 2012.

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A quick mention of a triple figure St. Jude Classic fancy of mine this week both in the outright and first round leader markets and that's Sul Yeung Noh, still available at 125/1 places 1-6 with BetVic. Possibly inspired by compatriot Sang Moon Bae's recent success, Noh - who often starts tournaments fast - hit 3 rounds of 69 at Colonial. That was followed by a DQ at Memorial but he only narrowly missed out on US Open qualification yesterday. Noh finished 7th here last year and is simmering at the moment.

As always, follow me on Twitter @Nicspicks for more thoughts and insight throughout the week.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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