Crowne Plaza Invitational preview and first round leader

Going to do a quick run down of my picks so far as well as looking at the first round leader market for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. First off, the Open qualifying finished Monday night in the US and it threw up a handful of players I was interested in for this week.

I sent the members email out late last (Monday) night and Brian Davis, Camillo Villegas and Luke Guthrie were all part of the staking plan at triple figure odds. Villegas has been showing signs of a return to the old golfer he once was rather than the cyclist and two fine rounds from the Colombian had him looking twice the price or more than he should be, at 150s

These players were all added to John Huh and Harris English who I put forward at 40s going the extra place with BetVic. Both players enjoy tree lined tracks and arguably only Hilton head plays narrower on the PGA Tour than Colonial. This time last year the Twitter 'train' got going on Harris English who was actually triple figures for the 2012 Crowne Plaza Invitational and in the middle of going low in Open qualifying. He was backed in to 40s in some places before the off and he finished tied for fifth. What's more, Colonial is only 30 odd miles from TPC Four Seasons and both players could easily continue their form from the Byron Nelson. I'm also hoping Villegas can be this year's Harris!

Currently I'm looking at all the above triple figure shots in the Crowne Plaza Invitational first round leader market too but I'm waiting for the draw and will target those out earlier in the day. Jonas Blixt and Kevin stadler are others on the radar here; Blixt is beginning to get my attention again and played well around this time last year too while Stadler is capable of going low and well worth a small first round leader bet. He finished alongside Blixt at -2 in the qualifying.

Scott Brown qualified for the Open last night and you may remember a superb run of form from him across the main and Tour earlier in the year. Patrick Cantlay opened with a 67 and then managed to hit three doubles in a row in round 2 to slip back but he could be a horses for courses type for Colonial. Both these two are available at 20/1 for a top 10 on Betfair fixed odds.

This is largely shortlist of outsider notables that are worth making up your own mind on so make sure to check my spreadsheet for the final breakdown of official bets and staking plan tomorrow from both the BMW PGA and Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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