I havn't covered a lot of football this season but there are quite a few angles worth looking at in this years UEFA Champions league final, with a figure of as much as 80% of bets being placed on Bayern Munich in the absence of Mario Gotze. I'll obviously be in the minority and focusing largely on the value with Borussia Dortmund.
One particular area I have an interest in is the battle down the wings; Lukasz Piszczek has been passed fit and he and Schmelzer should be up against the dynamic duo of Ribery and Robben who will likely rotate flanks. While the stats on bookings for Piszczek don't make for confident reading, they'd look a lot different if he was up against these two every week in a game where nerves and tensions will be as high as the Champions League final. Piszczek likes to get forward, isn't noted for his tackling and if he finds himself chasing back a counter attacking Robben or Ribery too often, he will be leaving himself in yellow card territory. He's a standout 6/1 to be booked with Skybet while Schmelzer is 7/2.
Bayern Munich have been backed into a very short price for me after the news of Gotze but with Reus possibly playing off Lewandowski for Dortmund, they will still be a big threat. Maybe playing a more prominent or even central role off the striker, he's a standout 4/1 with Boylesports to assist anytime. If you do like siding with the value and believe the market is massively overreacting in favour of Bayern Munich, the Lewandowski/Dortmund score - win double is priced at a very big 13/2 with Betfred. For me they havn't factored in the probability that if Dortmund are to win, they will likely need 2+ goals and how often would that happen without their hitman being on target? The correct price for me here is closer 7/2.
Going back to the battle down the flanks which could be key to the outcome of the champions league final, dutching Schmeltzer and Piszczek for most tackles made in the game still pays 5/2 with BetVic after both players were cut from 8s. If you do fancy Bayern, Ribery and Robben should play a vital role and you'll get over 4/1 dutching these two for man of the match with BetVic and that's the standout bet for me on the Bayern Munich side. One more quick note on the assist market and Błaszczykowski - who has an assist rate this season of almost 1 in 2 - is also available at 4/1 anytime with Boyles.
Bayern Munich v Dortmund Champions league final best outside bets
Tip #1: Lukasz piszczek to be booked @ 6/1 (Skybet)
Tip #2: Marco Reus anytime assist @ 4/1 (Boyles)
Tip #3: Dutch Robben and Ribery for man of the match @ 5.24 combined
Tip #4: Dutch Schmelzer and Piszczek most tackles @ 5/2 combined
Tip #5: Lewandowski / Dortmund score - win double @ 13/2 (Betfred)
Please note that these are all outside value bets so stake wisely
Free £50 in play bet for Bayern v Dortmund @Bet365
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