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Champions league final - Bayern Munich v Dortmund tips

I havn't covered a lot of football this season but there are quite a few angles worth looking at in this years UEFA Champions league final, with a figure of as much as 80% of bets being placed on Bayern Munich in the absence of Mario Gotze. I'll obviously be in the minority and focusing largely on the value with Borussia Dortmund.

One particular area I have an interest in is the battle down the wings; Lukasz Piszczek has been passed fit and he and Schmelzer should be up against the dynamic duo of Ribery and Robben who will likely rotate flanks. While the stats on bookings for Piszczek don't make for confident reading, they'd look a lot different if he was up against these two every week in a game where nerves and tensions will be as high as the Champions League final. Piszczek likes to get forward, isn't noted for his tackling and if he finds himself chasing back a counter attacking Robben or Ribery too often, he will be leaving himself in yellow card territory. He's a standout 6/1 to be booked with Skybet while Schmelzer is 7/2.

Bayern Munich have been backed into a very short price for me after the news of Gotze but with Reus possibly playing off Lewandowski for Dortmund, they will still be a big threat. Maybe playing a more prominent or even central role off the striker, he's a standout 4/1 with Boylesports to assist anytime. If you do like siding with the value and believe the market is massively overreacting in favour of Bayern Munich, the Lewandowski/Dortmund score - win double is priced at a very big 13/2 with Betfred. For me they havn't factored in the probability that if Dortmund are to win, they will likely need 2+ goals and how often would that happen without their hitman being on target? The correct price for me here is closer 7/2.

Going back to the battle down the flanks which could be key to the outcome of the champions league final, dutching Schmeltzer and Piszczek for most tackles made in the game still pays 5/2 with BetVic after both players were cut from 8s. If you do fancy Bayern, Ribery and Robben should play a vital role and you'll get over 4/1 dutching these two for man of the match with BetVic and that's the standout bet for me on the Bayern Munich side. One more quick note on the assist market and Błaszczykowski - who has an assist rate this season of almost 1 in 2 - is also available at 4/1 anytime with Boyles.

Bayern Munich v Dortmund Champions league final best outside bets

Tip #1: Lukasz piszczek to be booked @ 6/1 (Skybet)
Tip #2: Marco Reus anytime assist @ 4/1 (Boyles)
Tip #3: Dutch Robben and Ribery for man of the match @ 5.24 combined
Tip #4: Dutch Schmelzer and Piszczek most tackles @ 5/2 combined
Tip #5: Lewandowski / Dortmund score - win double @ 13/2 (Betfred)

Please note that these are all outside value bets so stake wisely

Free £50 in play bet for Bayern v Dortmund @Bet365

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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