BMW PGA Championship Wentworth Picks

It's the European tour flagship event this week and all the big names flock back to these shores. In truth, these are the least fanciful betting events for me where all the market leaders look too short IMO, while at the same time it will be hard for the pack to infiltrate the marquee names at the top....

As mentioned on Twitter, emphasis is on ball striking and tee to green game at the BMW PGA Championship on a tricky tree-lined Wentworth track that requires shot shaping both ways and accurate approach play into (many) elevated greens equipped with run off areas. Swirling winds often catch the players out in amongst the forest terrain while old style penal fairway bunkers are there to catch slightly errant drives. Last year greens were poor, very firm, and hard to hold but as pointed out to me by @Tomthetipster on Twitter who attended the 2012 event, the weather was a lot better/warmer then so greens may be more receptive this year. Strong winds also had a hand in this at the 2012 BMW PGA Championship event.

Lee Westwood is the man to finish ahead of this week for me and while the big six will be hard to beat, those short prices mean value elsewhere with most firms paying 6 places and there are four in particular towards the middle of the market that take my fancy - two with noted success at the BMW PGA Championship and two with none whatsoever, but never-the-less - for different reasons - I think could go well this year:

First to stand out for me were two South Africans with superb ball striking ability: Branden Grace finished in the top five in his debut here last year while Richard Sterne has posted finishes of 3rd and sixth despite injury problems in recent years at Wentworth. Tony Johnstone has mentioned many times that Branden Grace learned to keep his ball flight low when growing up in windy conditions in South Africa and this should stand him in good stead here while Richard Sterne showed us his all round ability while winning in Joburg and finishing runner up in Dubai. Richard has hit 75% of GIR this year with a putting average sub 28 and both guys can beat any field when on song. Grace only narrowly missed out at the Volvo matchplay last week.

Next up are two guys with a smattering of BMW PGA Championship missed cuts but it could be said of both that they've each moved up a level this year: David Lynn has taken up status on the PGA Tour and has become a new man with some fabulous performances and according to his Twitter he's very excited about returning home for a period. Lynn just missed out on his maiden PGA Tour victory in a playoff defeat to Derek Ernst a few weeks back and confidence is high.

ThorBjorn Olesen has now had a few years to get to grips with the European Tour and he's touted as a future superstar in many quarters. Indeed Olesen finished 6th at the Masters where emphasis is firmly on approach shots and if his irons are on song again this week, he should be a feature. Both he and Lynn look worth chancing at the odds available.

BMW PGA Championship staking plan (prices from Monday members email)

As always, keep an eye on my spreadsheet on Wednesday for all picks including 1st RL and Colonial selections, or follow me on Twitter @Nicspicks

Pick #1: 1u ew Branden Grace @ 55/1 (SJ)
Pick #2: 1u ew Richard Sterne @ 60/1 (general)
Pick #3: 1u ew Thorbjorn Olesen @ 55/1 (general)
Pick #4: 0.75u ew David Lynn @ 70/1 (Skybet)

ALERT: Stanjames are places 1-6 and top industry price on numerous players at the BMW PGA Championship

Fancy some free golf bets bets this week? Up to £200 in with Bet365 here

Buy Me A Beer
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship