The Masters first round leader and specials betting tips

US Masters First round leader tips: (follow me: @Nicspicks)

ALERT: Bet365 are offering £200 in free bets for new customers while Stanjames go top industry price on the field until US Masters tee off this week

Nicolas Colsaerts may be a debutant but my mind is cast back to a similar situation at the Ryder Cup and there aren't many cooler players to cope in these circumstances. The Belgian overpowered the lengthy Medinah course and putted superby on speedy greens to shoot possibly (the unofficial) low round of the week and I can see see similar course characteristics with Augusta. PP are a standout 100/1 in this market which represents good ew value for me....

Stewart Cink as mentioned in my trading preview is a man who is returning to some of his top form of late. T14 at Tampa after a poor opening round 76, Cink went on to finish top six at the Masters warm up in Houston on a track set up to mimic Augusta conditions. Ranked 2nd in putting from 10-15' last year, 150 ew with Betfred looks a very tasty price for him to start fast.

To shoot lowest round betting

Bo Van Pelt is somewhat of an enigma and is no doubt one of the best ball strikers on tour. It's all about the flat stick for him and when it's hot he can go low on any course. He proved this when shooting a 59 at the pro-am in Phoenix earlier in the year and indeed he stormed home at The Masters last year with a final round 64 to post the low one of 2012.

Masters first round leader and specials Picks
0.5pts ew Nico Colsaerts first round leader @ 100/1(Paddypower)
0.5pts ew Stewart Cink first round leader @ 150/1 (Betfred)
0.75pts ew Bo Van Pelt to shoot lowest round at 66/1 (Paddypower)
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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