RBC In-Play trading diary: Beware the Hunter

I did mention on Twitter during the week that I wasn't a fan of backing Hunter Mahan on courses with small greens due to his below par chipping; however, seeing him at half his sp - the sort of price he often is pre tourney - while bang in contention with an early day two start, it's an opportunity I can't ignore. Hunter seems to have found some form this week and if his tee to green game is dialed in, he may opt to use the putter on the odd occasion he misfires an approach ala Tim Clark yesterday.

Another player along the same lines is Bo Van Pelt (28.0). I've given up trying to figure this guy out and again I'm just going on pure back to lay price movement potential. Both he and Mahan can go low at anytime on any course. I'm also going to add Johnson Wagner into the mix. Currently just two back on -4, Wagner - who took down the Sony Open last year on a not overly dissimilar course - looks huge at 85.0. One of the shorter more accurate hitters, he's got the "Tash" back so must be feeling good! Wagner, like Mahan, also has an early start on day 2 and is quite simply a stupid price on the exchanges

Trading plan: Place 2 units each on BVP and Hunter Mahan at 28.0 and 1 unit on Wagner at 85.0. Look to lay back 5 units if any player hits 6.0 and trade fully around the end of day 3 / early day 4 should they continue to run well

Please note that this strategy should be used as a guide and you should trade out whenever suits, position positive or negative

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.