In - Play trading diary: Honda Classic

The in play trading this week features two of my antepost Honda Classic picks so if you're already on them, don't get involved again. YE.Yang and Jeff Overton - both with some noticeable course form - are perfectly positioned, both in terms of on the leaderboard and in terms of the prices I generally target at current stage for this particular strategy. Both have an early start on day two and for a full run down of their credentials for this week, see my full preview.

The other noticeable is a name that was being bounced around last year on the tour as one of golf's potential superstars. Ben Kohles has far from lived up to the hype yet and as such is priced at a whopping 200.0 on the exchanges. At just 2 off the lone leader, this price is a top potential back to lay opportunity over the next two rounds.

Betfair Trading plan: Place 2.25 units and 1.75 units respectively on Jeff Overton (65.0) and YE Yang (80.0), with 1 unit on Ben Kohles at 200.0. Look to lay 5 units on Kohles at 16.0, and Overton and Yang at 11.0, with a view to greening up after round three if possible.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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