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2013 WGC Cadillac Championship Picks - Rose set to bloom

The second WGC event of the year and I'm going to go against two of my 'rules' at this week's Cadillac Championship at the TPC Blue Monster Doral course. Justin Rose defends on the back of some fantastic form this season and comes in sub 20/1 but in a reduced field and as strongly as I like his chances this week, he has to be included in the staking plan. As usual, if you're after some stress free betting, Bet365 are offering up to £200 in free bets that can be used on the Cadillac Championship.

As I often mention at this time of year at the WGC Cadillac, the Blue Monster sounds tougher than it actually is and we usually see a relatively low winning total, provided the winds stay moderately calm. Hitting fairways and greens are not necessarily the premium, as scrambling at the Cadillac championship down the years hasn't been too much of a problem, so an aggressive style is often rewarded as can be demonstrated by the likes of Nick Watney excelling here. Water will come into play on a lot of holes so overly errant shots will be punished, especially down 18 which is known as one of the toughest holes in golf - even more so if in contention.


WGC Cadillac Championship picks and staking plan (prices from Monday email)

Don't forget we are running a season long tipster competition with plenty of free bet prizes up for grabs

Pick #1: 1.5u ew Justin Rose @ 18/1 (general) As many of you know I think Rose has developed into one of the finest players in the world over the last two years (ignoring rankings) and is my big favourite for the Masters next month. The defending champion comes into the WGC Cadillac in fine form off the back of a top five in extreme blustery conditions last week and will likely be the man to beat here.

Pick #2: 1u ew Adam Scott @ 28/1 looks a decent price relative to the market leaders and he times his season around the big events now which means he should be in decent shape. Top ten at the NT Open in his last strokeplay event suggests this is the case and Scott has a couple of top tens at the WGC Cadillac Championship in recent years. Adam also held the first round lead here last year with an opening 66.

Pick #3: 1u ew Nick Watney @ 40/1 (BFFO) is a perfect fit for the Blue Monster course. A poor season by Watney's standards last year but I expect him to bounce back in 2013 and where better than an event he's won and finished second in over the last four years. Doral suits Watney's tee to green game (currently 1st in GIR%) and his aggressive style should see him make plenty of birdies.

Pick #4: 1u ew Rickie Fowler @ 40/1 (SJ) Along the same lines as Watney, Fowler is another who has the game to suit here. Top ten finish in 2012 and a T13 last week,Fowler seemed to have the putter working from range for the most part which is key for him. If he can continue that this week, he should contend and looks a decent price for this week's WGC Cadillac championship.

Pick #5: 0.5u Geoff Ogilvy ew @60/1 (Bet365) Former WGC Cadillac winner Geoff Ogilvy is a player I rate as one of the most naturally gifted in the game. When he's on, he's at the very highest level. He comes into the event off the back of a 2nd place at the Honda where he drove the ball well according to his post round four interview. Ogilvy thrives on the greens when in form and ranked 20th and 45th in strokes gained putting in 2011 / 12 respectively and he can use that to his advantage this week

First round leader: There are three standout guys at huge odds for me in this market. Alex Noren (150/1 best price with stanjames), Scott Jamieson (200/1) and Tim Clark (100/1) are all players capable of going low around this track and well worth 0.5u e/w

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for more tips and updates



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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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