2013 Tampa Bay Championship Picks

Moving on to the Tampa Bay Championship this week, an event most of you will know previously as the Transitions. Former US Ryder Cup Captain Paul Azinger believes the Innisbrook resort course at Copperhead is the best stop on tour all year round and the par 71 7,300 yard track can play tough. Tree lined and undulating fairways await on some lengthy par 4s but key this week is par 3 performance. The course for the Tampa Bay Championship comprises five par 3s averaging 200 yards and the eventual winner will have to negotiate these well throughout the four days.

Most top prices again this week are with Stanjames while bet365 are offering the usual up to £200 in free bets. Much appreciated if you sign up through my links if you don't have an account yet...

2013 Tampa Bay Championship picks (prices from Monday email)

As always, you can follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for more tips and interaction throughout the Tampa Bay Championship

Pick 1: 1.25u ew Jason Dufner @ 25/1 (Stanjames) Four top 30s in his last four visits to the Tampa Bay Championship for Dufner who is beginning to round into form this year with progressive 51 - 12 finishes. His impressive Innisbrook form culminated with a top ten for Dufner here last year and his game stands out for the Copperhead track, ranking an eye catching 20th in par three performance in 2012.

Pick #2: 1u ew Jason Day ew @ 35/1 (Stanjames) is another player who excels on par threes: 1st and 6th in 2011 and 2012 respectively in this stat, Day is also showing signs of his best form lately. Third in the matchplay and a low second round 66 on day two last week, Jason - who also boasts progressive course form - is warming up nicely pre Tampa Bay Championship.

Pick #3: 0.75pts ew Scott Piercy @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes) is another who showed some scintillating form at the matchplay a few weeks ago and he's a man that can go seriously low on any course. He demonstrated that at Tampa Bay last year with a final round 62 to post a top five and his game could be about to peak.

Pick #4: 0.75pts ew John Senden @ 55/1 (Sportingbet) Horses for courses and Senden posted back to back second place finishes here in 07/08 and recorded a top 20 at the Cadillac last week. Senden's game revolves around keeping mistakes off the card and with an all round ranking of 13th last year and we could see the Aussie thrive once more at Copperhead.

Pick #5: 0.75pts ew Geoff Ogilvy @ 66/1 (Stanjames) Very similar form at the Tampa Bay Championship to that of Jason Dufner and I have to stick with Ogilvy purely for price value despite him failing to follow up his recent 2nd at the Honda. Surprisingly, Ogilvy ranks 32nd in driving accuracy this year which is a positive at Tampa and again, Ogilvy follows the par three performance trend having come in at 2nd last year in this department.

Pick #6: 0.5pts ew Sang Moon Bae @ 100/1 (Stanjames) Lost out in the playoff here last year so obviously the course suits and Bae is simmering at the moment having hit 3 of his last ten rounds in the mid sixties. Again, price too big to ignore.

Tampa Bay Championship side markets: Charlie Beljan (150/1) is my big outside fancy this week. Instead of ew, I've opted to go 3pts top 10 on the big man at 16s with Stanjames (now best 14 with Coral). Beljan has been practising here since a missed cut on the mark at Honda (following a playoff loss the week previous) and according to his Twitter page,he loves the course, it feels like his home track and he's gunning for his second victory. I'm also 0.5pts ew on Beljan for 1st round leader at 100/1.

Richard Lee is another notable in this market at a current best price of 200/1. Opened with numerous rounds in the mid sixties through 2012 to the present and ranked top of the pile in par three performance last year. 0.5pts ew 1st round leader.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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