AT & T In-play trading - Pebble Dash

A tough first day over the three course rotation yesterday and a trio of players are on the radar at juicy odds today. Greg Owen was on the pre tournament shortlist with two top fives and another top ten here in his last seven appearances but poor form leading up to the event left me with a watching brief. He carded a round of -5 yesterday at Monterey and currently trades at 60.0

Kevin Stadler (90.0) sits on -3 and shows progressive current form of T27/11, with seven of his last eight rounds in the sixties and the more relaxed nature of the pro-am event could see the big man thrive. Luke Guthrie is arguably the one to watch this year from the second tour graduate list and posted 68 at Pebble on day one. Six birdies and an eagle in his round, and with the easiest course (Shore course - Monterey) still to come, could be a factor this week. He currently trades at 75.0.

The trading plan is to stake 1.5 units each on Guthrie and Stadler, with 2 units on Owen, for a total 5 unit outlay. I'll be looking to lay back the full five units should any player hit odds of 7.0 and then green up after round 3 should they continue to run well.

To make this play you will need to sign up to Betfair. If you're new to trading, see my "Introduction to trading" article in the index.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.