AT & T In-play trading - Pebble Dash

A tough first day over the three course rotation yesterday and a trio of players are on the radar at juicy odds today. Greg Owen was on the pre tournament shortlist with two top fives and another top ten here in his last seven appearances but poor form leading up to the event left me with a watching brief. He carded a round of -5 yesterday at Monterey and currently trades at 60.0

Kevin Stadler (90.0) sits on -3 and shows progressive current form of T27/11, with seven of his last eight rounds in the sixties and the more relaxed nature of the pro-am event could see the big man thrive. Luke Guthrie is arguably the one to watch this year from the second tour graduate list and posted 68 at Pebble on day one. Six birdies and an eagle in his round, and with the easiest course (Shore course - Monterey) still to come, could be a factor this week. He currently trades at 75.0.

The trading plan is to stake 1.5 units each on Guthrie and Stadler, with 2 units on Owen, for a total 5 unit outlay. I'll be looking to lay back the full five units should any player hit odds of 7.0 and then green up after round 3 should they continue to run well.

To make this play you will need to sign up to Betfair. If you're new to trading, see my "Introduction to trading" article in the index.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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