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Farmers Insurance in-play trading - Balls of steele

Please note that all trades will be made on Betfair.

Moist and calm conditions at the Farmer Insurance yesterday saw the the smallest difference is scoring average between Torrey Pines North and South since 2001 (1.667); scoring on the North wasn't as low as in previous years while a handful of players - including joint leader KJ Choi - went deep on the south in easy conditions. For me this gives players who went well around Torrey South yesterday a big advantage if conditions are to revert to type today.

Three players to play the North course today are on the radar at nice odds on Betfair: John Huh (55.0) and Bill haas (42.0) shot -17 between them on the North course last year while Steve Marino (140.0) - before his injury problems - was a regular fixture atop the 'total birdie' stat. I'm also going to throw Brendan Steele (180.0) into the mix. He's on the south today but I read an article about him yesterday regarding his strict new fitness and healthy eating regime. He also mentions he's scrambling better than ever and his driving ability stands out for this track.

The trading plan is to split six units up so that if any were to win they would return broadly the same amount (dutching). I'll be looking to lay though if any player hits 7.0 for 6 units which would cover our liabilities. We would then trade out fully (green up) after round three should they continue to run well.

Brendan Steele is also priced at 9/4 to win his second round three-ball today v Stewart Cink and Jonas Blixt and this is quite simply the wrong price and worth a play.

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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