Farmers Insurance in-play trading - Balls of steele

Please note that all trades will be made on Betfair.

Moist and calm conditions at the Farmer Insurance yesterday saw the the smallest difference is scoring average between Torrey Pines North and South since 2001 (1.667); scoring on the North wasn't as low as in previous years while a handful of players - including joint leader KJ Choi - went deep on the south in easy conditions. For me this gives players who went well around Torrey South yesterday a big advantage if conditions are to revert to type today.

Three players to play the North course today are on the radar at nice odds on Betfair: John Huh (55.0) and Bill haas (42.0) shot -17 between them on the North course last year while Steve Marino (140.0) - before his injury problems - was a regular fixture atop the 'total birdie' stat. I'm also going to throw Brendan Steele (180.0) into the mix. He's on the south today but I read an article about him yesterday regarding his strict new fitness and healthy eating regime. He also mentions he's scrambling better than ever and his driving ability stands out for this track.

The trading plan is to split six units up so that if any were to win they would return broadly the same amount (dutching). I'll be looking to lay though if any player hits 7.0 for 6 units which would cover our liabilities. We would then trade out fully (green up) after round three should they continue to run well.

Brendan Steele is also priced at 9/4 to win his second round three-ball today v Stewart Cink and Jonas Blixt and this is quite simply the wrong price and worth a play.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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