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Nelson Mandela Championship Picks 2013

It's straight back into the action as the 2013 golf season starts this week with a new event on the calender - The Nelson Mandela Championship in South Africa. Royal Durban golf club is the venue and it will be an unfamiliar challenge for the majority of the field.

By all accounts, rainfall has been prominent in the area over the past couple of months and will be a big feature this week. The track plays under 7,000 yards (but longer in soft conditions), tight, exposed fairways are soft and rough is thick and wet so must be avoided. Small greens are guarded by strategically placed bunkers and if you're coming in from the long grass with approaches, prepare to be building sand castles. In short, there will be a big premium on accuracy from tee to green at the Nelson Mandela Championship this week and I've made my picks with this in mind.


2013 Nelson Mandela Championship Picks Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks

Remember: Bet365 are offering up to £200 in free bets to use on the golf this week

Pick #1: 1pt ew Soren Kjeldsen @ 66/1 (general) Going with the theme of accurate players who tend to excel on short courses, Soren Kjeldsen will always be on the radar. Kjeldsen closed out the UBS Hong Kong Open on a track requiring similar attributes with a 66 on the Sunday and went on to post a T26 in Dubai. One of the most accurate players on tour, form is returning and price looks big in this company.

Pick #2: 1pt ew Keith Horne @ 66/1 (general) I tipped Horne at the same price for the SA Open in a stronger field a few weeks back. He was rusty and went on to miss the cut but last week Horne posted a top ten on the Sunshine Tour which seems to have gone unnoticed in the odds. A reliable source tells me that Horne played a lot of his golf at Royal Durban when he was younger and this gives him a big advantage on the field.

Pick #3: 1pt ew David Horsey @ 66/1(general) A player in the mould of Kjeldsen, Horsey was a previous 70/1 winner for Nicspicks and if he can get the flat stick working again this week, he should go well on the Royal Durban set up. Horsey comes into the Nelson Mandela Championship having posted a Sunday 66 for a top 15 finish in Hong Kong and ranked 31st on tour in driving accuracy in 2012.

Pick #4: 1pt ew James Morrison @ 66/1 (general) Following along the same lines as the above players, Morrison comes into the Nelson Mandela Championship off the back of a top 20 in Hong Kong. Morrison is not afraid to mix it with big company which he showed at the BMWPGA when building a big lead after two rounds. Ranked 18th in driving accuracy in 2012, James looks a tasty price relative to the field.

Sleeper Watch - Thailand Golf Championship

I'm moving to Thailand and have a couple of top 10s in mind this week for my big outsiders. Two players who have shown course form at Amata Spring with qualification for the Open here in recent years are Lahm Chih Bing and Anirban Lahiri. Both have the power necessary to tackle the 7,500 yard track and have an affinity with the course. Bing shot 68-67 here in 2011 as did Lahiri this year to qualify for the Open. Bing narrowly missed out again in 2012. They can be backed for a top 10 at best currnet prices of 33/1 (VC) and 14/1 (SJ) respectively and both also worth a look in the 1st round leader marketat big odds. 1pt on each.





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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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