Scroll for course fit and progressive form models & info

Alfred Dunhill Championship Picks 2013

After a somewhat non event in South Africa last week due to adverse weather conditions, we move onto a much more scenic venue in the shape of Leopard Creek for the Alfred Dunhill Championship, where driving ability will be key. A moderate length course circa 7,300 yards winding through forest and bushland, fairways are relatively tight and Kikuyu rough is a no go area.

Experience will play a big part this week at the Alfred Dunhill Championships - both in terms of on the course and on courses with Kikuyu grass in play, and there will be a South African theme to my staking plan. Leopard Creek consists of some lengthy par fours coupled with reachable par fives and big hitters will have an advantage provided they can keep their ball in play


Alfred Dunhill Championship picks - Catch me for more on Twitter: @Nicspicks

Take advantage of up to £200 in free bets with Bet365 to use on the golf this week

Pick #1: 1.25pts ew Thomas Aiken @ 25/1 (general) Thomas takes Jaco Van Zyl's position as my headline pick this week. I was expecting Aiken to be too short to back and a bigger price on Van Zyl but both are in around the same odds. Aiken excels on home soil and has posted two top fives in this event in his last four starts. I'm writing off the tournament last week as the results tell us nothing. Thomas tied for third at the SA Open a few weeks back and has increased his driving accuracy by 10% this year while still averaging over 290 yards off the tee.

Pick #2: 1.25pts ew Robert Rock @ 33/1(general) I'm a bit late with my preview to put up the early 45/1 about Rock but he is a standout pick this week, even at 33s. With plenty of form in South Africa including a 2nd and a 4th place here at the Alfred Dunhill Championship in recent years, Rock posted a weekend 69-66 at the DP World Championship for a top 25 finish. His putting has also improved significantly, ranking 6th in putts per GIR in 2012.

Pick #3: 1pt ew Richard Sterne @ 40/1 (general) The best value of the pack for me this week. One of South Africa's finest and former Alfred Dunhill Championship winner, Sterne has been struggling with injury problems but has a decent run of tournaments under his belt in 2012. Top 20 at the SA Open Championship and Sterne holds this event in high regard. Sterne is competent in all departments of the game but he excels off the tee, averaging 300 yards from the markers and hitting 60% of fairways this year.

Pick #4: 0.75pts ew Hennie Otto @ 50/1 (SJ) A 33/1 winner for Nicspicks at the back end of last season, Otto is appearing on the radar once again. Showing progressive form at the Alfred Dunhill Championship with finishes of 15-7 the last two years respectively, big hitting Otto comes into the event off the back of two top 10s in his last two South African starts if we write off the shambles that was the Nelson Mandela last week.

Pick #5: 0.75pts ew Darren Fichardt @ 50/1 ew (general) Another in the golfing doldrums for a while the talented Fichardt also boasts decent course form at Leopard Creek with three top 25 finishes in his last seven starts. Fichardt has also posted a couple of top 10s on the Sunshine tour in recent weeks and has the all round game to make 50s look appealing this week.

Fancy some stress free betting? Up to £200 in free bets with Bet365 here

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.