DP World Tour Championship Picks 2012

It's the season finale this week on the European Tour as 57 players (after withdrawals) tee it up in the newly named DP World Tour championship and after 45/1 and 50/1 winners here at the Earth Course in 2011 and 2010 respectively, this has been one of the more profitable events for Nicspicks. It takes a certain type of player to win on this track and Rory McIlroy is a perfect fit for the course. I wonder about Rory's mindset though after already wrapping up both money lists and the majority of the other market leaders look extremely short and easy to oppose.

The Earth course at the DP World Tour championship plays a lengthy 7,675 yards and features wide fairways and large undulating greens. Rough this year has been overseeded placing more emphasis on hitting fairways but expansive landing areas still give the bombers an advantage. Tricky greens with run off areas and reading 12'on the stimpmeter place a premium very much on approach shots and there's one player atlong odds who I love to back at set-ups such as this one and that's Alex "moon ball" Noren.

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Pick #1: Martin Kaymer ew @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) There's only one name towards the top end of the market that gives me any real interest at the prices available and that's the German, fresh off the back of a weekend 68-67 at the SA Open Championship for a share of third place. Kaymer, who has a top record in this part of the world, has been showing signs of his old self in the second half of the season and can continue at the DP World Tour Championship where he left off on a course arguably not too dissimilar in setup to the Serengeti

Pick #2: George Coetzee ew @ 40/1 (general) is a player many of you know I rate extremely highly. George hit a course record 63 at the Serengeti last week en route to a 2nd place finish and his combination of huge hitting coupled with one of the best putt conversation rates from 5-15ft on tour could stand him in good stead around the Earth Course. It's four top 6 finishes for Coetzee now in his last six and the big man closed at the DP World Tour Championship last year with a weekend 69-67. Relatively big price.

Pick #3: Nicolas Colsaerts ew @33/1 (Ladbrokes) is another that fits the course criteria to a tee (excuse the pun) and also boasts a good record in this part of the world. Averaging over 300 yards off the tee with over 75% of Greens hit, the Belgian has been simmering a little of late after his Ryder Cup exploits. Possibly refreshed after a mediocre top 25 at the Dunlop Phoenix, he may be ready to unleash on the Earth Course this week.

Pick #4: Alex Noren ew @ 70/1 (Coral) is a huge price for me relative to the field at this week's DP World Tour Championship. Off the back of qualifying for the final stage of the US Tour school at Redstone GC - a course tha also bears similarities to the set up this week, Noren placed sixth here in 2009 and has the game to take on the Earth Course. The Swede has one of the highest ball flights with his irons on tour - perfect for attacking the pin positions on the large undulating greens and the multiple winner could be one to watch this week at a tasty price. Alex is also well worth a look in the first round leader market.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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