Westham v Southampton Betting tips

I'm targeting a lower key game in the Premier League this weekend as Southampton travel to London to take on Westham and there are two bets in particular (at good odds) that I'm looking at. Southampton managed to grab a much needed point in the final moments last time out against Fulham but their inability to defend is still the prominent theme this year. Whilst the Saints have scored more than any team in the bottom half of the Premier League, they've shipped 20 goals in just seven appearances

Westham find themselves in the top half of the Premier League table and it was a magnificent transfer coup by big Sam in reuniting Andy Carroll with good friend Kevin Nolan at the beginning of the season. Carroll has been troubled by injury and the partnership hasn't yet had time to blossom. Nolan won't be the focus today though as a certain Matt Jarvis was also brought in with Carroll in mind.

Jarvis has also been in and out of the side but I expect both will start today and the combination may cause Southampton's leaky defence all sorts of problems. Jarvis was noted last year for delivering the most successful crosses in the Premier League and if he can supply big Andy with that ammunition, a good season is in store for Westham. Expect Westham to target this area if Jarvis is fit to start and the pacey winger should hit the by-line on many occasions, firing balls into Carroll who'll be dominant in the air. A goal coming from this combination today would hardly be surprising and it's unlikely to be a first clean sheet for Southampton.

Best bets

Tip #1: Matt Jarvis to assist anytime @ 3/1(Boyles)
Tip #2: Carroll to score/Westham to win @ 14/5 (Betfred)
Tip #3: Westham to score over 1.5 goals @ 10/11 (general)


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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets
Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.



What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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