Premier League weekend thoughts and tips

The standout match on the Premier League fixture list for me in terms of betting is the London Derby between Westham and Arsenal. Arsenal are in fine form of late despite the 2-1 defeat and setback against Chelsea last week but their old defensive frailties from set pieces have reappeared again in recent games. Significantly, a certain Andy Carroll is being lined up by Sam Allardyce and Westham to take advantage of this

Allardyce also has Matt Jarvis in his ranks, a player who hit the most successful crosses last year with Wolves and he will be looking to get the ball out to the winger to try and provide the ammo for Carroll. William Hill are top industry price on the big man to net at a good value 10/3, while Boylesports go 9/2 on Jarvis to assist anytime. Unibet are a very big 10.0 on Carroll to score from a header.

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From an Arsenal perspective, they are free scoring at the moment having netted three goals on average in their last seven in all competitions and midfield maestro Santi Cazorla should be at the centre of the action tomorrow. I saw a lot of Cazorla in Spain and he is lethal from range. With the added edge in the derby, he could get opportunities from free kicks around the box and 15.0 for Cazorla to net from outside the penalty area with Unibet is inexplicable in my book. He's 12/5 with Boylesports to assist anytime and 5/6 on the over 2.5 goals looks the short odds play in this one.

Anytime Goalscorers

Elsewhere in the goal scorer markets, Pavel Pogrebnyak takes my fancy again up against a leaky of late Swansea defence. Pogrebnyak is a box striker that will play on the shoulder of the last line of defence and he knows where the back of the net is. He's settled into the Reading set up quickly and is equally adept on the ground and in the air. Again William Hill are best priced 11/4 for the Russian to score while Bluesquare are 20/1 on a brace. Reading at 1/1 on the asian handicap (+0.5) with Pinnacle also looks a decent play.

Romelu Lukaku has been making a real impression along with Shane Long this year for high flying Westbrom who entertain QPR this weekend. QPR can't seem to keep the goals out this year and whichever of the two (if not both) start, they look a decent price to score, both 15/8 with Stan James.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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