Scroll for course fit and progressive form models & info

2012 HSBC World Golf Championship Picks

Only one golf tournament to sink our teeth into this week in the form of the HSBC World Golf Championships from Mission Hills, China. We're looking for a good Asian swing to finish 2012 and I'm going to add a first round leader staking plan to the preview and hopefully we can build on Peter Hanson's 40/1 success last week


There were two players I was looking at for the HSBC Championships this week before the odds came out: Francesco Molinari had the run of this course at the World Cup of golf in 2009 when he and his brother Edoardo pipped McDowell and McIlroy, while Ian Poulter thrives in this part of the world and excels close season. Neither for me though can be backed ew at current prices although both are worth looking at as potential trades.

The golf tipster comp this week will be slightly different. Just one event so tweet me THREE picks from the HSBC for your chance to win a £25 free bet with Stanjames (you must have a SJ account)

The Mission Hills course comprises 5 reachable par fives, small but receptive greens and maintained rough so despite what recent World Cup leaderboards may fail to portray (with such a small sample size of players), the bigger hitters will obviously have a slight advantage at the HSBC Championship this week, but over powering the course is not on the agenda.

HSBC Championships Picks

Pick #1: Louis Oosthuizen ew @ 20/1 (general) is the standout pick near the top of the market for me. Louis is a streaky player and when he is on, he's one of the best drivers of the ball in the game. Ranking 7th in total driving and 6th in ball striking on the PGA Tour, Oosthuizen posted four rounds in the sixties at the BMW to finish T6 and I expect him to feature at the HSBC Championship.

Pick #2: Graeme McDowell ew @ 30/1 (general) Renowned for his driving ability, consistency and touch around the greens, McDowell ranks 6th in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour in 2012. He also ranks an eye catching 5th in proximity to the hole (the part of the game I thought was his weakness). Graeme posted a T11 last week and showed with his win over Woods at the Chevron not too long ago that he doesn't switch off close season. Most notably, watching him here in the 2009 WC, the course very much suits the Irishman.

Pick #3: Nicolas Colsaerts ew @ 33/1 (general) A poor weekend last week for Nico has him in at 33s but anyone watching will know that the damage was done in just two holes late in round three. Colsaerts went double double on 16 and 17 on Saturday at the BMW and Sunday then became a non event. Expect the Belgian to bounce back on a course that may fit his eye.

Pick #4: George Coetzee ew @ 50/1 (general) Surprising price on big George this week off the back of three consecutive top sixes now. He was a bit like a rabbit in the headlights as he stumbled to a 71 on Sunday but he's gaining more and more experience and I expect him to win soon, and win big. Coetzee has the all round game, averaging 295 yards off the tee with over 60% of fairways hit and 70% GIR. He generally excels with the putter too (it was his downfall last week) with under 29 putts on average and he could feature at the HSBC championship at a big price.

HSBC World Golf Championship first round leader - article here (picks below)

Fancy some no stress free golf bets this week? Up to £200 with Bet365


There are a handful of standouts for the FRL staking plan this week who may go low around Mission Hills. Most are simmering and I'm expecting them to burst into life at any time now. As well as the five below, I'm also having a small ew bet on Hennie Otto at 200/1. Otto has been on the radar of late and I'm drawn to a 64 he shot in Malaysia earlier in the year. As many of you will know, he grabbed us a nice priced winner at the back end of last season so it may be a good time of year for him.

0.75pts Rafa Cabrera Bello @ 80/1 (ladbrokes) 0.75pts JB Kruger @ 90/1 (SJ) 0.5pts Thomas Aiken @ 100/1 (general) 0.5pts WC Liang at 125/1 (skybet) 0.5pts Robert Rock @ 150/1 (Skybet)

Biggest prices weekly for outsiders in this market with Stanjames

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.