Premier League Football Tips - Match Week 4

The first Premier League fixture this week that catches the eye is Sunderland v Liverpool. Both teams are seriously lightweight in the striking department and neither have picked up the full three points yet this season. The two sides have only scored four goals between them and barring a Luiz Suarez masterclass it's hard to see where the goals will come from. Backing under 2.5 goals at just under evens may be the play

Steven Fletcher has been brought in for Sunderland and it was he who bagged a brace to earn a point at Swansea. It's Fletcher's presence that makes the odds on the home side look appealing and Sunderland +0.5 on the asian handicap looks a top tip at best industry price of 13/17 with Pinnacle. Fletcher is currently at 11/4 to net with Sporting bet which looks tempting given the Reds defence has been shaky thus far.

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Another area I'll be looking to exploit with Sunderland in the coming weeks is in the new Boylesports 'assist' market. With James McClean and Adam Johnson now operating down the flanks and getting crosses in to Fletcher (who excels in the air), there will be value in backing these two to assist in the near future. With prices of 11/2 and 9/2 respectively v Liverpool, combining the two in a dutch bet will get you odds of 2.97 which looks a decent price.

Next up is the man of the match markets that Victor Chandler are running early season. This market has proven one of the most exploitable markets ever for me in betting and once again it is value central. Everton started the season like a house on fire but suffered a set back v WBA and will be looking to return to winning ways. Steven Pienaar could be key against an indifferent of late Newcastle side. Pardew has adopted an offensive approach and Pienaar will look to exploit space on the counter. He looks huge at 16/1 for man of the match in this one.

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We have a London derby taking place at Loftus Road as QPR play host to Chelsea while across the City Arsenal will entertain Southampton. Taking into account how all four teams have started the season, these games look to have plenty of goals in them.

Chelsea shipped two to Reading at the Bridge and looked extremely vulnerable to the counter attacks of Atletico when demolished 4:1 in the Super Cup. QPR have a real cutting edge in their side with Zamora and Cisse up top, and the latter - a big game player and lethal from within 20 yards, looks a good bet at 10/3 to carve open that Chelsea defence once again. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at evens on Betfair.

Southampton have lost their matches against the big two this season by the 3:2 scoreline and their manager adopts a very attacking philosophy. Rickie Lambert has continued on from his scoring exploits in the lower divisions by netting in both games and at 7/2 against a vulnerable Gooners back line, he looks worth a bet to make it a hat-trick. Both teams to score can be backed at a generous 1.83 on Betfair while I'll be looking at Alex Chamberlain to cause trouble for the away side, and the young Arsenal winger is priced at a healthy 5/1 with Boylesports to assist in what may be my bet of the week.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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