St. Jude Classic Picks 2012

Very busy for the next while with the US Open and the Euros so straight to some big odds picks for the St. Jude Classic

Fedex St. Jude Classic Picks

Pick #1: 0.5pts Kevin Stadler e/w @ 80/1 (general) 0.5pts e/w first round leader @ 70/1 (general) Very consistent if not an overly great season for Kevin Stadler so far this year. Just missed out on qualifying for the US Open on Monday off the back of a T16 at Memorial. The field this week is relatively modest and Stadler(as well as my other two picks) thrive in these type of events. Premium this week is hitting fairways and greens and avoiding bogeys. Stadler ranks 37th in total driving and 32nd in par four performance. Notably, the American tied for 4th at The Heritage where set-up almost mimics that of the St Jude Classic.

Pick #2: 0.5pts e/w Brendan De Jonge @ 80/1 (general) 0.5pts e/w first round leader @ 70/1 (general) It's taken a while for De Jonge to get going this season despite 14/17 cuts made but he's only finished outside the top 45 once in his last 8 events which includes a couple of top 20s in strong field events. De Jonge ranks 24th in GIR% and 8th in total birdies and was a regular in contention in 2011.

Pick #3: 0.5pts e/w George McNeill @ 150/1 (general) 0.5pts e/w first round leader @ 100/1 (general) Proven winner in similar events including the Puerto Rico Open earlier in the season, McNeill has been working on his short putting and is much the improved player for it. He's ranked 32nd on tour in scrambling this year and 150/1 looks extremely large.

Up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's St Jude Classic
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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