Euro2012 Top Goal Scorer Tips - Karim To Rise

Antepost top goal scorer markets are almost always open to exploitation for the astute punter, generally offering plenty of value, and the Euro 2012 top goal scorer market is no different. It is my most profitable antepost market in football, bringing in big profits through the years with the likes of Milan Baros (50's - Euro2004), Berbatov (40's EPL 2010/11) as well as Marcus Berg and Darren Bent, tipped on this blog in the 20's in various top scorer markets, and there's one player that stands out a county mile from the rest for me at Euro 2012:

Euro 2012 top scorer tips - the favourite

Karim Benzema was trading at 25/1 a few weeks back but has unfortunately been backed into best priced 16/1 with bet365. He's still the pick of the bunch for me at this price. One of the most potent strikers in world football, the 24 year old struck just under 30 goals in all competitions for Real madrid on the way to La Liga title glory this season. He shared duties with Higuain and who knows how many he'd have bagged if he got more playing time.

Benzema has a strike rate of 47% is his time at Madrid and nets just under 1 in 3 for France. He will spearhead Les Bleus' attack at Euro 2012 with a myriad of attacking talent around him in a much changed and reinvigorated French side. Debuchy and Evra will provide the width for the French, leaving the likes of Gourcouff(update: Gourcouff not selected in final squad), Nasri and Ribery to carry out a creative more central assault on the opposition and supply through balls and ammunition from behind. Benzema can be backed at a value 3/1 to be the top goal scorer for France and is also worth a bet at 66's for the top scorer / France win double.

The value contenders - Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks

My two to watch in this year's Euro 2012 top goal scorer market are Fernando Llorente (17.0) and Lucas Podolski (29.0), who if reports are to be believed could both be wearing the red and white of Arsenal next year - Llorente is due to hold a press conference tomorrow about his future.

The only concern is game time with competition for places huge in both camps. All eyes are on Mario Gomez for the Germans but Podolski offers a huge threat from a deeper lying position. He has a lethal strike on him and can score from long range as well as in the box and he may be the value option. He is currently priced at 8/1 to be the top German scorer. Podolski has an amazing s/r of just under 50% at international level.

It looks like Spain will go with just one up top after amazingly leaving out Roberto Soldado from their 23 man squad, opting for only three strikers and a whole host of midfield players. It may be a straight battle for the starting berth between Llorente and Fernando Torres and if the former gets the nod, his ability both on the deck and in the air will prove a serious test for any defence. The big man boasts an impressive 33% strike rate for Athletic Bilbao and Spain.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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