The main season may be over but it's just under two weeks until a feast of football kicks off in the Ukraine and Poland in the shape of Euro 2012. I'm already in the middle of in depth Euro 2012 research and looking at a few particular angles in which I'm confident I'll have a decent edge on the Euro 2012 betting and trading markets. To take advantage of this, you will need a Betfair account. As always with these big events, there is plenty of betting value around with accurate probabilities difficult to estimate. With such a wide array of markets to be priced up by odds compilers, this is where we can benefit at Euro 2012.
Euro 2012 goal index betting
Looking at the prices on the over 2.5 goals betting for the first round of Euro 2012 fixtures, it's hardly surprising to see bookmakers siding quite firmly with the unders. This is because no country wants to lose their first match and the opening Euro games can often be tight affairs. However, there are some standout prices with some Euro 2012 matches at the 6/4-13/8 mark on the over 2.5 and factored into the betting may be the lack of goals around in the early stages of the last World Cup in 2010. Prices through the tournament in general will favour the unders.
Back in South Africa, you may recall there was a new lighter ball and games were played at altitude; players struggled to adapt and goals were in short supply especially in the earlier stages. This was the main reason for the lack of goals and odds may be skewed somewhat.
Only two of the opening round of games in Euro 2008 went over 2.5 but it's backing in play where we can possibly exploit the odds:
On the exchanges (Betfair), I'll be targeting selected games throughout Euro 2012 at betting odds of 5/4 or greater on the over 2.5 goals. I'll be looking to enter the market in play from minute 20-30 and backing over 1.5 goals (or over 2.5 goals if there is an earlier break through). We should see odds between 1.8-2.0 on just two goals being scored with over an hour to play and this may prove profitable throughout the event if you choose your matches wisely.
Euro 2012 correct score betting - Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks
A strategy I've been working on during 2011/2012 is dutching and trading correct scorelines on the exchanges. It was a case of one step back to hopefully jump two steps forward and after a tough season in the football, I'm now confident I've found a significant edge with this.
This strategy will involve targeting odds against Euro 2012 favourites around the 11/10 - 13/8 mark in the betting, against teams who are defensive and / or lack potency up front. Again, this may prove nicely profitable especially in the early and group stages of Euro 2012 if you can grasp the concept.
I'll be dutching the 2:0 2:1 scorelines to the favourite. This means I'll be splitting my total betting stake up over the two scorelines in order to give me the same return if either were to win. You should see odds betweeen 11.0 and 14.0 on these scorelines if the favourite is small odds against.
It's dutching with a twist however as I won't be letting the game finish; I'll be looking to trade between minute 70-85.
If either scoreline is hit, I will wait until the scoreline is trading at odds on - this will happen from minute 70-77 depending on the action and then trade out and equalise for a profit of generally around 200-250%. If the scoreline is hit between minute 75-85, you're looking at a profit generally between 250% and 350%. The great thing about this strategy is that you can get out at no liability at approximately minute 80 and minute 85 if the scoreline is 1:1 or 1:0 respectively, and this is an exit strategy I strongly advise.
I've also been looking at angles to exploit goal scorer betting markets and at Euro 2012, a strong market is individual country top goal scorers and I have a few long odds fancies including the dangerous Roman shirokov for Russia. I'll be posting them up on the blog soon so stay tuned. Please retweet this article if you've enjoyed the read.
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