The US Masters Special Bets

Robert Garrigus is the huge price pick firmly on the radar for the US Masters this week and I've been looking for an angle on him. Garrigus comes into the event off a missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but on a course that doesn't really suit and after playoff heartbreak the week previous, I wouldn't pay any attention to that.

Augusta should fit Garrigus' game and with the rain falling in Georgia and conditions possibly set to be softer than expected, this will benefit the big hitter more. Garrigus is a general 250/1 shot and has been backed as high as 500.0 on the exchanges

As mentioned, I've been exploring other angles and the specials markets and 14/1 on Garrigus top Debutant looks a good E/W prospect with places 1-3. Bradley and Simpson the only two outstanding in that market. Garrigus can also be backed at 150/1 e/w 1-5 in the first round leader market or at 13/2 for a top 20 finish.

Paddypower are offering a "To shoot lowest round" market and Garrigus, who has shot the lowest round on the PGA Tour so far this year (61), looks huge at 125/1 e/w. Rickie Fowler at 100/1 is also very tempting. Fowler mentioned after last week's performance that although his score didn't exactly show it, he feels his game is right there.

Two players worth backing closer to the top end of this market are Jason Day (40/1) and Nick Watney (33/1). Both have gone very low around Augusta before, with Day actually shooting the low round of the tournament (64) in 2011. Both are prone to low numbers but often struggle to put four rounds together and this market may be the better option.

Someone from the Asian Tour usually goes well at the US Masters and Sang Moon Bae looks a good price this year. Very similar to Garrigus in that he also lost out in the playoff a few weeks back at the transitions and then missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer with almost the same score as Robert. Bae has hit many rounds in the mid sixties on the PGA Tour this year, his lowest being a 64 at the Humana. He can be backed e/w at 10/1 in the top Debutant market, 125/1 e/w in the "To shoot lowest round" market, 125/1 ew in the first round leader market or 11/2 top Asian or for a top 20 finish.

Bubba Watson is a strange player at the best of times and after adopting a new baby last week, I'm wondering whether his heart will really be at the Masters this week. In fact, I checked his Twitter timeline and indeed he tweeted something along the lines of "Hate to be leaving my wife and new baby boy so soon" which leads me to believe that if things don't start well, we could see the Bubba we saw in France last year who couldn't get home quick enough. 11/4 with Hills on Watson to miss the cut looks decent value to me.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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