FA CUP Betting: Chelsea v Tottenham Tips

It's an all London FA Cup semi final between two of the Premier League's finest when Chelsea meet Tottenham at Wembley on Sunday. With Roberto Di Matteo now at the helm for Chelsea he has completely changed their approach from that adopted under Andre Villas Boas. He's opted to drop the defensive line deeper and strengthen the midfield but despite that, Chelsea have still conceded in four of their last five matches. Frank Lampard has regained his place and Salamon Kalou has started to feature along with Jon Obi Mikel but the Chelsea forward line remains in a state of rotation.

Tottenham have adopted a similar pattern to that of the back end of last season. Jermaine Defoe is featuring less and less and Harry has started playing Sandro in tandem with Parker in the middle of the field. This, coupled with injuries to a few key players and an under performing Modric has seen some of Tottenham's flair and ability to open up teams diminish in recent weeks. Tottenham have played out two 0-0 draws in their last five and if Harry opts to try and keep it tight early on, we could see a slow start. With so much quality on show though and with Van Der Vaart and Adebayor back on the goal trail for Tottenham, it's hard to see a repeat of the goaless draw at Stamford Bridge a few weeks back.

Chelsea v Tottenham Advised Tip: Back over 1.5 goals in play at 1.7 (over 2.5 goals if an early goal is scored). This price should be hit around the 30 minute mark.

Market value tips: There are some decent goal scorer prices around for the Chelsea v Tottenham FA Cup semi and Ladbrokes may be offering their first goal scorer money back special, where if a selected player scores anytime, they refund losing first goal scorer bets. This is a good offer to take advantage of by backing two first goalscorers to return an equal amount if one hits the net (Dutching).

As mentioned, Van Der Vaart is back on the goal trail and tends to score in streaks. He can be backed to score first at 10/1 with Ladbrokes - £50 free bet or a top value 7/2 anytime with Paddypower or Hills. Didier Drogba is available to score anytime at an overpriced 10/3 with Hills if he gets the nod over Fernando Torres. Daniel Sturridge could also be a factor and another overpriced at 10/3.

I'm waiting for a price on Rafael Van Vaart to score from outside the box but we should see around 10/1 and that represents a good value longshot (excuse the pun).

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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