2012 Trophee Hassan II Golf Picks

Tough decision whether to go with the Trophee Hassan or the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week on the blog, having actually tipped the winner of both events here the last two years running if memory serves me right! I've gone for the Trophee Hassan as for me there are three or four players that virtually pick themselves and with only Manassero the outstanding favourite, there is better value this side of the pond. I mentioned my fancies for both events on my Twitter Timeline yesterday so follow me there and don't miss out. Unfortunately some of my Trophee Hassan picks are widely fancied this week with a couple of popular betting sites and odds have been cut already.

As usual, Bet 365 are offering new acounts Up to £200 in free bets which you can use on this week's golf. Much appreciated if you use my links to take advantage.

Trophee Hassan II Picks
Pick 1: 1pt e/w Jaco van Zyl @ 25/1 (general) I often mention that it pays to stick with players for a few weeks running. Donald and Rose have showed this in recent weeks but unfortunately I had to jump ship on them due to much shorter odds but 25/1 on Van Zyl, a man on top of his game and who only lost out in the Trophee Hassan II last year in a three man playoff, is just large enough to go with this week.

Pick 2: 0.5pts e/w Gregory Bourdy @ 40/1 (general)Following the trend, Bourdy is another I tipped last week and is my big fancy for the Trophee Hassan. I mentioned I have him pegged for a big few weeks and he warmed up nicely last week after a month off from competitive action with a T11 in Spain. He also has Trophee Hassan form with a progressive top 35 and a top 20 the last two years.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Edoardo Molinari @ 40/1 (general) T11 with Bourdy last week and always one of those on the one to watch list, Molinari claimed on Twitter on Sunday that his tee to green game is coming along nicely and he just needs to do a little work on his putting. Anyone who watched him last Friday won't understand that statement as he holed from everywhere! His game must be right there and big value this week against the Trophee Hassan field.

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w David Lynn @ 33/1 (general) T15 at the Trophee Hassan in 2010, T9 in 2011 and a strong challenge last week with a solo 4th, Lynn's game seems to be just about to peak. One of those players that picks himself for me. Lynn's high ball flight will give him an advantage into small greens protected by deep bunkers in Agadir.

Pick 5: 0.5pts e/w Rhys Davies @ 55/1 (general) Big price off the back of a hugely surprising missed cut last week. Top 10 finish in his previous event at the Avantha Masters and the course this week obviously suits his game. Davies is renound for being arguably the best putter on the European Tour and on such small greens, it's no coincidence that he's won and been runner up (lost in a playoff) the last two years.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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