2012 Shell Houston Open Golf Picks

First off, Ladbrokes are going EW places 1-6this week for the Shell Houston Open. They offer this for selected events through the season and it is much appreciated if you take advantage by opening accounts through my links. I'll be staying away from market leaders this week in the main and going for bigger odds players to hopefully place.

The annual warm up for the year's first major this week as Redstone G.C hosts the Shell Houston Open. Each year, Redstone is set up to pose a very similar test to that which the players will face next week at Augusta. There is a domination of the Shell Houston Open leaderboard down the years by the bombers and hardly surprising given that it plays almost 7,500 yards long, doesn't penalise errant drives and birdies are a premium. The greens are large and conditions generally fast and firm and emphasis, like Augusta, is on approach shots. Miss the greens and scrambling will be tough.

2012 Shell Houston Open Picks
Pick 1: 1pt e/w Johnson Wagner @ 33/1 with Ladbrokes - free £50 bet Wagner is a new man this season and has shocked me with his form. Five top 15's already including a win and a T2 and coming off the back of a T4 last week where he holed nothing down the stretch. Wagner is a previous winner of this event and was right up in contention after two rounds at the 2011 Shell Houston Open.

Pick 2: 0.5pts e/w Padraig Harrington @ 50/1 with Ladbrokes - free £50 bet Opened with a stunning -10 two weeks ago at the Honda, on a course (despite his record) that arguably doesn't suit. Harrington runs his schedule around the majors and likes to 'peak' before the event and signs were obviously there at the Honda. This is a track that suits Harrington and multiple top 20's back that up, including a top 10 here last year.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Rickie Fowler e/w @ 50/1 with Ladbrokes - free £50 bet Indifferent season so far and comes into the Shell Houston Open off the back of a top 10 at the Honda and a T45 at the Cadillac. Redstone is a course that should suit the birdie machine type player. Fowler ranks 6th in total driving in 2012 and was sixth in birdie average last year and at double the price of the market leaders and six places, the better bet.

Shell Houston Open sleeper picks

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w Anthony Kim @ 100/1 (SB) Texas native and course specialist, Kim, showed signs of some form last week as he lead the Arnold Palmer Invitational for most of round one and was looking towards a solid finish before a disastrous final round. Winner of the Shell Houston Open in 2010, Kim has gone low here before despite some erratic driving and has done the same at Augusta, and may be one to watch. Could be a strong first round leader bet. Best price still 80's.

Pick 5: 0.5pts e/w Fred Couples @ 110/1 (SB) Posted top fives at the Shell Houston Open in 08 and 09 and had a special and emotional comeback victory here back in 2003. Couples will be in fine spirits returning to Houston (where he went to College) off the back of a win last week on the Champions Tour and may continue on where he left off.

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Free bet offers: Up to £200 in free bets with Bet365 | £50 free bet with Ladbrokes | £50 free bet with Betfred | £25 no loss @ Betfair
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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