2012 Andalucia Open Golf Picks

It's the return of the European golf tour this week to it's natural home and a decent event to kick it off in the shape of the Andalucia Open. Gonzalo Fdez Castano was my big favourite but he's pulled out along with fellow bookmaker fav Paul Lawrie. None of the market leaders now catch my eye and those double the price and bigger have just as much a chance of victory so I'll be hunting the value further down the Andalucia Open field.

Andalucia Open Picks - Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks

Pick 1: 0.75pts e/w Marcus Fraser @ 40/1 (general) Fraser comes into the event off the back of a fourth place finish in the Avantha Masters and a very credible T24 in the WGC Cadillac last week after a poor opening round. Fraser is a multiple winner on tour and experience and course management could be key this week at the Andalucia Open.

Pick 2: 0.75pts e/w Alejandro Canizares @ 40/1 (general) One of the home favourites this week, Canizares comes off the back of a T10 at the Avantha and T5 at Mayakoba on the PGA tour. Canizares has course form at Aloha GC with a top 20 back in 07 and is one of the tour's top putters. Greens this week at the Andalucia Open are quite slopey and the short stick will be important.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Jaco Van Zyl @ 40/1 (general) On a tight, treelined course, accuracy and ball striking will be key this week and Van Zyl is that type of player. Keeping the ball underneath the pins from approach shots will be important and Van Zyl has a GIR% of almost 75% in 2012 on tour. His good form continues with a top ten on the Sunshine Tour in the Telecom PGA. 4th in SA Order Of Merit.

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w Gregory Bourdy @ 70/1 with (Bet365):Up to £200 in free bets Hasn't featured since a 16th place at the Dubai Desert Classic where his game looked in top shape. Streaky player and I fancy him on the layout of the Aloha track. I penciled him in for a big few weeks while watching him on the Asian swing.

Pick 5: 0.5pts e/w James Kingston @ 80/1 (general) Again, sticking with the theme of the more experienced players, Kingston's form is ever improving this season and I can't quite grasp where this price is coming from. Almost 73% in GIR this year and with a good Asian Swing under his belt, Kingston could feature on a course that should suit.

If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Andalucia Open.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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