Napoli v Chelsea Tips

It's possibly the last chance saloon for AVB's reign as Chelsea manager as they face an in form Napoli side who are very tough opposition on their own patch. Chelsea have been woeful of late with no wins in four, conceding six goals in the process. They've only scored two goals in their last four away from home and although Didier Drogba has returned from the Afcon, he's not the force he used to be. Juan Mata continues to struggle to find the brilliant goalscoring form he had at Valencia and leaving Lampard out of the starting lineups is a huge mistake.

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Napoli on the other hand have won their last two matches, scoring five goals without conceding; Indeed they've only let in two goals in their last five at home so the stats don't make good reading for a misfiring Chelsea side. It's 15 goals in 22 league games for Edinson Cavani this year in a Napoli side that scored in all six champions League group games. Cavani, Hamsik and Lavezzi / Pandev will give the Chelsea back line a torrid time, especially if Villas Boas is bold and goes for all three points. Vargas may be unavailable for this one, luckily for Chelsea. David Luiz may struggle again if a starter and may be worth looking at when the player booking markets are formed. Cavani should also be on pens and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the home side awarded one tonight. 7/1 can be had on Napoli to score from the spot with Bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets with Bet365

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Napoli v Chelsea Advised Tips
Tip 1: Napoli win v Chelsea @ 7/5 (PP)
Tip 2: Edinson Cavani anytime scorer for Napoli v Chelsea @ 15/8 / to score a brace @ 14/1 (Paddypower)

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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