Mayakoba Golf Classic Picks

This week, the golfing world is focused on the WGC Accenture Matchplay and I love these occasions, as 'secondary' events like the Mayakoba Golf classic always throw up brilliant value prices. I'll often spot numerous players from 40/1 up who have just as much chance of victory as the market leaders (who all should be avoided) at the Mayakoba Classic. The Premium service this week includes 1st round leader picks from Mayakoba as well as a strategy I use to try and exploit the value at the World Matchplay. A lot of the best prices on my selections are with Bet365 who are currently still offering up to £200 in FREE bets for new accounts. Much appreciated if you go through my links.

El Camaleon is a very short par 71 where certain 'course specialists' always seem to go well. Fairways are tight and greens are small and well guarded, with accuracy the premium at the Mayakoba Classic.

Mayakoba Golf Classic Picks - Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks
Pick 1: 0.75pts e/w Heath Slocum with Bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets Slocum is one of those Mayakoba Classic specialists I referred to and comes into the event off a nice warm up with two top 40's in last two starts, arguably on courses that didn't really suit and in much stronger fields. T13 at Mayakoba in 2010 and T3 in 09, Slocum's game sets up perfectly for the El Camaleon track.

Pick 2: 0.75pts e/w Kevin Stadler @ 45/1 (Skybet) Somewhat under the radar this week after a poor 18 months or so but very prominent on mine. Stadler is a regular feature on the Mayakoba Golf Classic leaderboards down the years and coming off the back of two top 25 finishes in tough events in strong fields, including finishing just sevens hots back at the NT Open.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Cameron Beckman @ 55/1 with Bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets Beckman is not in great form this year but then he hasn't been in year's passed in the lead up the the Mayakoba Classic, yet went on to post a top ten in 07 a top fifteen in 09 and 2011 and winner of the event in 2010. This course obviously suits Beckman's game down to the ground.

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w Alejandro Canizares @ 70/1 with Bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets A strange pick some may be thinking but Canizares has ventured over to Mexico before. He posted a top 35 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic last year and a sneaky top 15 in 07 and comes off the back of two top 25's on the Asian swing and a top 10 last week at the Avantha Masters. Canizares is one of the best putters on the European tour and on small greens this week, he could do some damage.

Pick 5: 0.5pts e/w Joe Durant @ 70/1 with Bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets Another Mayakoba Golf Classic course specialist and a little bit of a risk as he hasn't played since posting a -10 at the Humana Championship but Joe's starts and record here cannot be ignored. Notably ranking 1st in driving accuracy and 3rd in greens in regulation on the PGA Tour in 2011, Joe has multiplestrong finishes here including a T2nd in 2010.

Remember: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Mayakoba Classic.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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