2012 Northern Trust Open Picks

The blog focus of attention returns to the PGA Tour this week and next stop is the Northern Trust Open and Riviera C.C. A quality field assembles for the Northern Trust Open and for me, this is where the PGA Tour really kicks off, on a course that often plays tough and the cream tend to dominate the leaderboards. Adam Scott, my E/W pick for this year's PGA Tour Money list at 33/1 makes his season bow. Scroll down for Northern Trust Open Picks.

This week also sees the launch of the new premium email service which includes a new first round leader golf strategy and FRL picks for the Northern Trust Open and Avantha Masters and will be sent out on Wednesday. You can sign up or find out more through the link.

Northern Trust Open Picks
Pick 1: 0.75pts e/w Jason Day @ 33/1 with Ladbrokes - £50 free bet Not much relevant course form at the Northern Trust open for Day to go on but the tougher the track, the better. Day tends to thrive on courses like Riviera where premium is on keeping bogeys off the card, especially on par 4's. Off the back of a T2 in Qatar last time out and can draw inspiration from fellow Aussie and defending champ, Aaron Baddeley.

Pick 2: 0.5pts Nick Watney e/w @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes - £50 free bet Very attractive price on Watney this week due to a T40 at Pebble where he never really got going but signs were there that Watney's game isn't far away. 5th in the all round ranking last year as well as 7th in bogey avoidance and 31st in total driving are stats that catch the eye for the Northern Trust Open.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Keegan Bradley @ 50/1 with Bet365 - £200 in free bets - Bradley is simmering so far this season with four top 25's from four starts and like Watney, his game is suited to the tougher tracks. Ranking 10th in GIR% this year on what is predominantly an approach shot course in Riviera C.C, Bradley could be a contender for this year's Northern Trust Open.

Pick 4: 0.5pts Geoff Ogilvy e/w @ 66/1 (general) A massive return to form for Ogilvy during the back end of last season and many of you will know that when Ogilvy is on, I rate him as one of the top five in the world in terms of natural quality. Progressive form this year already with a T50 at the Farmers Insurance and T25 last week - a nice warm up for the Northern Trust Open. Ranked 18th in par 4 performance in 2011.

Pick 5: 0.5pts e/w Kevin Na @ 40/1 (general) Ranking 10th in bogey avoidance this year and coming off the back of two T5's, Na also has standout course form at the Northern Trust Open with a top 10 in 2010 and a 3rd place finish last year. Na was ranked 9th in scrambling last year. I don't usually back him due to his temperament but after eventually winning last year and with all variables pointing in his favour, 40's is a decent price.

Northern Trust Open Sleeper Pick
Pick 6: 0.25pts e/w Jimmy Walker @ 100/1 with Betfred - £50 free bet Walker is a player on my 'one to watch list' and has been very profitable for me over the last two seasons. A player who can go low on some of the tougher courses and comes in to the Northern Trust Open off a T9 at Pebble to go with a T4 here at Riviera last year.

Please note: Below are some of the betting accounts that will be needed throughout the season to follow my staking plan(advised), and for best prices on my golf picks which will maximise profit potential. All offer top free bet offers on sign up and I'd greatly appreciate if you sign up through the links on the site before this weeks's Northern Trust Open.

Free bet offers: Up to £200 in free bets with Bet365 | £50 free bet with Ladbrokes | £50 free bet with Betfred | £20 no loss bet @ Betfair

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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