NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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2012 Dubai Desert Classic Picks

The Dubai Desert Classic seems the most popular choice of the punters this week and in truth, breaking down the field in America at Pebble Beach is proving more difficult for me than usual with a case to be made to oppose nearly all the top 12 or so in the market, so the Dubai Desert Classic gets the nod this week. Picks on Twitter @Nicspicks later in the week for the AT&T.

Scandinavia, and Denmark in particular is the area of focus for my two main Dubai Desert Classic picks this week. Unfortunately, they are widely fancied and already have been backed in from 33's.

The Emirates golf club will play 7,300 yards to a par of 72 and with average width fairways(a lot with doglegs) plenty of trees, and wind forecast to be gusting strongly, premium is likely to be on good ball striking and intelligent play rather than bombing, even though rough is not too deep.


Dubai Desert Classic Picks
Pick 1: 1pt e/w Anders Hansen @ 28/1 (Bodog - 6 places) 5 top 25's in last 6 European tour events and showing progressive form, Hansen shot a closing round 67 last week to share 12th place. T2nd last year in the Dubai Desert Classic, top 20 in 2009 and good form in this part of the world makes Hansen a standout pick this week. Greens are set to run fast and true which will give him an added edge.

Pick 2: 1pt e/w Thomas Bjorn @ 28/1 (Bodog - 6 places) I'm sticking with Bjorn this week having watched him recover brilliantly after an opening day 79 in strong winds last week to post another top 25. Bjorn played his final two rounds -11 in Qatar and will be eager to continue where he left off this week at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Matteo Manassero @ 60/1 (general) If it's good ball striking and intelligent play you're looking for at the Dubai Desert Classic, Manassero is the man. Billed as the next Luke Donald, Manassero missed the cut last week, hense the large price but we can disregard that given the high winds. His form previous reads a progressive 34, 23, 6.

Pick 4: 0.25pts e/w Joost Luiten @ 80/1 (Ladbrokes) Another top ball striker, averaging almost 76% GIR this year so far and one who a lot of you know has been on my radar for a long time. Indeed, he got his first win at the back end of last season. Decent form this year and 80/1 for the Dubai Desert Classic looks huge on a player who can go very low - The "Dutch birdie machine".

Pick 5: 0.25pts e/w J.M Olazabal @ 150/1 (Bodog - 6 places) I never thought I'd be tipping Olazabal but with a run of tournaments under his belt for the first time in years, he may come under the radar this week. He's posted a 6th and 12th place finish this year already in big events along with a top 20 at the Dubai Desert Classic last year. His scrambling skills could be a big advantage around Emirates GC. A Spaniard has won this event the last two years running and maybe he can follow the trend!

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.