Golf Experiment - Farmers Insurance

All week, I had my mind on the North vs South course at the Farmers Insurance, knowing how much easier the North course plays. I was hoping that some firms would price up the first round leader market but only Betfair did in the end.

The market didn't really form and there was little liquidity but I decided to experiment with tiny stakes on dutching the first round leader anyway ( I split stakes up so that if any won, they would return broadly the same profit) as I didn't want to let my research go totally to waste. For my golf followers, this is something to focus on and learn from for the future in particular tournaments.

Basically, I targeted players on the North Course, with earlier tee times if possible, that I know can go low on any given day. Also targeted were players with previous low round form at Torrey Pines along with other variables. Stats such as the total birdie stat was a big focus for me and eventual first round leaders Stanley and Levin ranked T6 and 3rd respectively in 2011 in that stat. Click screenshot below for final results and see how such small staking can be rewarded by thinking logically and putting in the time:

Open a Betfair account if you fancy trying it in future tournaments (aff link).

Click image to enlarge (Dead heat rules apply)
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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