Golf Experiment - Farmers Insurance

All week, I had my mind on the North vs South course at the Farmers Insurance, knowing how much easier the North course plays. I was hoping that some firms would price up the first round leader market but only Betfair did in the end.

The market didn't really form and there was little liquidity but I decided to experiment with tiny stakes on dutching the first round leader anyway ( I split stakes up so that if any won, they would return broadly the same profit) as I didn't want to let my research go totally to waste. For my golf followers, this is something to focus on and learn from for the future in particular tournaments.

Basically, I targeted players on the North Course, with earlier tee times if possible, that I know can go low on any given day. Also targeted were players with previous low round form at Torrey Pines along with other variables. Stats such as the total birdie stat was a big focus for me and eventual first round leaders Stanley and Levin ranked T6 and 3rd respectively in 2011 in that stat. Click screenshot below for final results and see how such small staking can be rewarded by thinking logically and putting in the time:

Open a Betfair account if you fancy trying it in future tournaments (aff link).

Click image to enlarge (Dead heat rules apply)

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2015 Selected Golf Winners
Frysdotcom Open: Emiliano Grillo 50/1 (win)

British Masters: Matt Fitzpatrick 33/1 (win)

US PGA Championship: Jason Day 14/1 (win)

Czech Open: Thomas Pieters 90/1 (win)

European Masters: Danny Willett 16/1 (win)

European Masters: Anirban Lahiri 100/1 (Place T10)

Crowne Plaza: Chris Kirk 35/1 (win)

Shell Houston: JB Holmes 33/1 (win)


Trophee Hassan: M.Lundberg 250/1 (top 10)

Tshwane Open: Craig Lee 150/1 (top 10)

Puerto Rico: Alex Cejka 100/1 (win)

Humana: Justin Thomas 15/2 (top 10)

HTOC: Patrick Reed 22/1 (win)

Sony Open: Rory Sabbatini (FRL, top 10)

Abu Dhabi: M. Kaymer 16/1 (place)

Abu Dhabi: B-H An 9/1 (top 20)

CIMB Classic: R. Karlberg 125/1 (win FRL)

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