2012 Joburg Open Picks

It's the start of a new golf betting season on Nicspicks and first up is the Joburg Open which seems to have preference over the Sony. One thing to note is that it's important to be very wary of the African swing as it's generally dominated by the short priced favourites such as Schwartzel, Goosen, Aiken and Oosthuizen and these players will have a big influence on the trading prices of the field. Below are some of the names who could mount a challenge to the big guns in this year's Joburg Open. The tournament will be played at the Royal Johannesburg and Kensington's East and West courses, the former playing 400 yards longer and a big factor to note for early round traders.

Joburg Open Golf Picks

Pick 1: Richard Sterne @ 25/1(general) I was hoping Sterne would fly under the radar but a 6th place last week has seen that off. Sterne, brilliant on home soil, has been struggling terribly with injuries and missed almost the whole of last season. Multiple winner on tour including 3 victories in South Africa, one of which was the Joburg Open in 2008.

Pick 2: Danny Willett E/W @ 25/1 (general) Terrible season last year by his standards and will be keen to bounce back. Good start last week with a 7th place finish and T4 here back to back in 09 and 2010 makes him an easy pick for this week's Joburg Open.

Pick 3: Branden Grace E/W @ 35/1 - Bet365 - up to £200 in FREE bets Incredibly, Grace finished in a tie for 14th last week after a woeful opening round 77. He bounced back with a -10 on day 2 and completed the final 3 days in -20. If he continues that trend, the 35/1 (opened at 40's) will look very big at the Joburg Open.

Pick 4: Tjaart Van Der Waalt @ 45/1 - Betfred - £50 free bet
Tipped a few times at the back end of last season due to progressive form, Van der Waalt continued where he left off last week, finishing 2nd only to tournament fav Oosthuizen. T7 here last year and top 20 in 2010 says he likes the set up.

Joburg Open Sleeper Picks.
Pick 5: James Kingston @ 80/1 (Sporting bet) Kingston gets the vote purely due to an utterly ridiculous price relative to the field. A regular challenger on the European Tour in far stronger fields and seems to have thrown off some bad end of season form with a warm up 41st position last week.

Pick 6: Tyrone Mordt @ 250/1 (Stanjames) is a huge price at this year's Joburg Open. Missed the cut last week but posted a 2nd round -5 in the process. Royal J&K is Mordt's home course and he opened up here with a -9 62 round 1 on route to a 33rd place finish in 2011.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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